Two things need to happen for Nashville Predators to break four game skid
A week ago, the Nashville Predators were on top of the Central Division and becoming the talk of the league. Now, after a four game losing streak, including some bad losses at home to Vancouver and Buffalo, the Predators are perhaps a bit closer to where many people thought they would be: in 3rd place […]
A week ago, the Nashville Predators were on top of the Central Division and becoming the talk of the league.
Now, after a four game losing streak, including some bad losses at home to Vancouver and Buffalo, the Predators are perhaps a bit closer to where many people thought they would be: in 3rd place in the Central, hoping to remain competitive in a tough division.
This sort of thing happens in hockey, even to good teams. You aren't going to win them all. Most teams go through streaks of poor play, or at least poor results, in an 82-game season.
So what do the Preds need to do to correct course? Here's two solutions.
Get at least one of their top four defenseman back
The Preds are currently down two of their top four defensemen: Dante Fabbro, who is "week-to-week" with an upper body injury, and Mattias Ekholm, who has been in COVID-19 protocol since Saturday, January 15th.
Since losing those two, the Preds' blueline has looked a shell of itself. While Roman Josi is still an elite player (though apparently not worthy of the NHL's All-Star game) and Alex Carrier is still playing very well, it's a different story for the rest of the crew. Matt Benning and Mark Borowiecki are being asked to do more and have struggled. Philippe Myers still seems to be working on his game. Ben Harpur, once again, really doesn't belong in an NHL lineup. Jeremy Davies played adequately against Vancouver on Tuesday, and might be the Preds' 3rd best option at this point, but he's not at the level of Fabbro or Ekholm.
The fact is that until the defense gets at least one of Fabbro or Ekholm back, the defensive unit will struggle. The Preds' top four deployment of Josi-Fabbro and Ekholm-Carrier has been a constant this year, with Borowiecki-Benning rounding out the 3rd pair.
But when the 3rd pair is asked to put up 2nd pair minutes, and the 3rd pair is made up of AHL level defensemen, your defense suffers.
Right now it looks like Ekholm will be the first one to return, though we do not know when. Most players miss around a week when put on the COVID list, so I'd expect Ekholm to be back by Saturday's game against Detroit at the earliest.
Finishing chances in the Preds' offensive end
Put simply, over the last four games the Preds have not been shooting well.
It's not that they've not been getting chances; Nashville ranks 13th in the league in even strength unblocked shot attempts per sixty minutes over their last four games. They've had stretches of play where they've flooded the offensive zone with quality looks, including against Vancouver on Tuesday.
But finishing has been a problem of late: they have the 5th worst shooting percentage in that same span. Shooting only 5.7% isn't going to cut it.
In truth, finishing has been an issue for most of January for the Preds at even strength. And some of the biggest names on the team are the reason why.
Here's a quick glance at some shooting stats at even strength since January 1st:
- Roman Josi — 1 for 26 (3.8%)
- Matt Duchene — 0 for 12 (0.0%)
- Philip Tomasino — 0 for 13 (0.0%)
- Eeli Tolvanen — 0 for 12 (0.0%)
- Mikael Granlund — 0 for 11 (0.0%)
- Nick Cousins — 0 for 10 (0.0%)
In fairness, taking any three week snapshot of a particular shooter's results can look worse than it is. No one is going to say Roman Josi hasn't played well over the last few weeks, especially not me.
There is considerable luck involved in shooting the puck. Many things are out of your control, and goalies can get hot. Sometimes players need to get shots off from different angles and at different speeds in order to gain an advantage on a goalie, as seen in this power play goal by Tomasino:
Even strength can prove more challenging in that regard, with defenses playing more aggressively on shooters, particularly in the danger areas.
Could these recent cold streaks be a result of regression? Maybe. Particularly for someone like Matt Duchene, who's been shooting a few clicks above his career average this season.
Will those cold streaks eventually end? Definitely, especially when you consider the shooting talent on the team.
And if the Nashville Predators want to end their losing streak, they'll do it sooner rather than later.
— Featured image via Steve Roberts/USA TODAY Sports —
