Greg McElroy and Cole Cubelic of McElroy and Cubelic in the Morning dropped a prediction for the Tennessee Vols in 2026 that feels like it’ll end up being spot on. 

McElroy, who has the Vols going slightly over the 7.5 win total, predicts that Tennessee will win a game this fall that they probably shouldn’t thanks to true freshman quarterback Faizon Brandon’s talent. But he also thinks the Vols will lose a game they probably shouldn’t (because of the inevitable growing pains that come with starting a true freshman quarterback).

“I think they’re going to be more responsible on defense, even if their personnel isn’t where it needs to necessarily be,” said McElroy. “And I think they’re going to have an electric quarterback that might be able to upset someone, but I don’t know if they can avoid the upset somewhere, a la at South Carolina or even at Georgia Tech early in the season. I think there’s a couple of tricky spots (on the schedule). They’re going to lose a game they shouldn’t, but they’re going to win a game they shouldn’t, too. I just don’t know where those are coming.”

Cubelic agreed with that stance. 

“I agree with you that they’re going to steal one or two, and I think there’s a good chance they give one or two away,” added Cubelic, who has the Vols going under 7.5 wins. 

McElroy has been pretty optimistic about Tennessee this offseason, more so than most of the national media. He was high on the Vols even before Brandon was named the program’s starting quarterback. But he also understands that asking a true freshman to win 10 or 11 games in the SEC is a tall task.

That’s not to say it can’t happen, but the odds suggest there will be some tough moments that Brandon and the Vols offense have to endure. 

The games Tennessee could steal, and the ones they could slip up in

Looking at the schedule, I think the game Tennessee could win that nobody expects them to win is the early-season home game against Texas. I don’t think the Longhorns are as sure of a thing as some in the media have made them out to be. I could see the Vols playing well at home and pulling off the upset if they can jump on Texas early. 

On the flip side, there’s a landmine of games Tennessee should win that could turn into losses. Auburn at home is no gimme. Arkansas on the road is a place where Tennessee hasn’t won since Phillip Fulmer was the head coach. We all know that playing at South Carolina is no easy task. And who knows what to expect when the Vols travel to Vanderbilt to end the season after losing to the Commodores last year.

Those are coin-flip games for a Tennessee team starting a young quarterback (at least for now, since we haven’t seen this Vols team play yet).

Ultimately, I think there’s a good chance this team finishes in the 8-to-9-win range. Maybe they knock off Texas at home or surprise everybody and beat LSU late in the season or pull off something special at Texas A&M on the road. And then there’s a loss somewhere on the schedule that you can chalk up to a freshman quarterback learning on the job.

The ceiling is high with Brandon under center, but he’s still a true freshman playing in the SEC for the first time (against a nine-game SEC schedule nonetheless).