The Buffalo Bills have two commendable tight ends atop their depth chart, but one specifically carries a ceiling that has the rest of the league paying attention.

Dalton Kincaid earned an honorable mention in ESPN’s annual survey of over 70 NFL executives, coaches, and scouts ranking the top 10 tight ends in the league. The 2023 first-round pick has flashed elite production when healthy, and the buzz around his 2026 season suggests a breakout is within reach.

A very gifted athlete. He hasn’t put it all together yet, but that’s partly due to injury — he absolutely can. I expect him to.

There’s a distinction between having blind faith in a high-end athlete, and genuinely expecting him to take the next step. That should give Buffalo fans real confidence in Kincaid heading into what amounts to the most important season of his young career.

Health has been the only thing holding Dalton Kincaid back

Kincaid’s injury history is well-documented at this point. He played through a torn PCL through the entire 2025 season and missed five games because of it. He’s missed nine games over the last two seasons. Staying on the field has been his biggest concern through three years of his career.

His absences opened the door for tight end Dawson Knox to step up and reaffirm his value. Knox has been a reliable presence for Josh Allen, and Buffalo rewarded him with a new three-year deal that replaced the existing year on his prior contract, keeping him under contract through 2028.

But in an offense that still needs to find more consistent weaponry around Allen, getting Kincaid on the field for a full season would provide a significant boost.

Kincaid’s production has become elite when he plays

There is no doubt about what Kincaid can do on the field at this point. He averaged 2.7 yards per route run in 2025, according to Pro Football Focus. That mark was 0.37 more than Tucker Kraft, who ranked second among TEs.

The efficiency speaks for itself, and the trajectory has been consistent as Kincaid has developed over the course of his career.

Staying healthy is the missing piece. It’s what has some in the NFL holding back from crowning Kincaid for what he can be. It’s not an understatement to say it would mean a great deal for the Bills going forward.

Kincaid breaking out would mean everything for Buffalo

Kincaid is already under contract through 2027 thanks to the fifth-year option; a guaranteed $8.162 million salary for that season. If he proves the anonymous exec correct this season, Buffalo will have a good problem on its hands entering next year.

Kincaid would surely be viewed as the future at the position, and Knox would likely play out his deal through at least the 2027 season. What happens after then is for the 2028 Bills to handle.

In the meantime, Kincaid will get every opportunity to prove he remains a piece worth building around and a consistent part of Allen’s offense. The Bills don’t need to choose one over the other right now. They just need Kincaid to stay on the field long enough to show the league what at least one evaluator already suspects is coming.