The Dallas Cowboys are likely to shock us with at least one of their first round picks, history suggests

The Dallas Cowboys are no strangers to shocking fans in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft. And while recent history proves it, that doesn’t mean their pick will be a bad one.

Mauricio Rodriguez — Dallas Cowboys News Writer

Apr 14, 2026 11:07 AM EDT

It kind of happens every year, doesn’t it? Dallas Cowboys fans stick to a handful of names they really like as first-round prospects and anyone outside of that bucket feels like a little bit of a disappointment on draft night.

It shouldn’t be that way. Player evaluation and valuation (two different things, by the way) is extremely subjective and it varies plenty from team to team. That’s why the Consensus Big Board, though a fantastic tool, isn’t the do-all, be-all to grade draft classes.

And yet, we’ll be using that big board to explain a hypothesis of mine: The Cowboys are highly likely to shock us all with at least one of their two first-round picks in the 2026 NFL Draft.

Cowboys usually pick lower

What I mean with the Cowboys being likely to “shock” us is this: It’s entirely feasible to see them “reach” for a prospect based on the Consensus Big Board. As in, picking the 28th ranked player at 12th overall (looking at you, Tyler Booker).

That’s what happened over the last four drafts, in which, on average, the Cowboys have picked a player ranked nine slots lower than their actual pick. You can see a breakdown below:

Now, the above doesn’t mean these are bad picks. Tyler Smith is an All-Pro guard and Booker appears to be well on his way to becoming one. But the above table serves as a reminder that the Cowboys’ board can and probably will look significantly different than the media’s.

So while picking at 12th has many hoping for the likes of LSU cornerback Mansoor Delane, Ohio State safety Caleb Downs, or Miami edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr., don’t be surprised to hear a name ranked much lower than that.

Using the -9 average over the last four years, that could include the likes of safety Dillon Thieneman (Oregon), or edge rushers Keldrick Faulk (Auburn) and Akheem Mesidor (Miami).

As for No. 20 overall, players ranked 32nd or lower could very much be in play. I’m talking Georgia LB C.J Allen, Tennessee CB Colton Hood, or San Diego State CB Chris Johnson, among many others.

Especially in a controversial draft like this year’s, who knows what their board will look like. As long as their draft board is right, who cares if their pick comes off as a shock or not. But be ready for them to pick a player much lower on the Big Board.

That is, unless they trade up…