Lions Prediction Lab: Detroit has a clear way to beat the Packers, but Green Bay has the perfect counterpunch
Detroit has a matchup it should be able to exploit offensively, but Green Bay’s disguises and quick passing game attack two areas the Lions have struggled with all season.
The bye week is over, and the Detroit Lions have the Green Bay Packers coming to town Sunday for their first divisional game of the year. It’s time for another Prediction Lab. Here’s where the Lions can win, what could get them beat, what decides the game, and a final score prediction for Lions vs. Packers.
Where the Lions can win this game
For starters, this one is simple. Feed Jahmyr Gibbs.
The Packers have allowed 686 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns in six games. Green Bay is vulnerable on the ground, and its defensive front is banged up. Edgerrin Cooper is out, Javon Hargrave is out, Jonathan Ford is on IR, and Micah Parsons still isn’t back. Detroit has to attack that defensive line.
Gibbs has had an odd history with the Packers. He beats up just about everybody, but Green Bay has figured him out a bit in recent years. Part of that comes from the Packers jumping out to early leads and forcing the Lions to abandon the run. That takes Gibbs out of the equation. This time, Detroit has to go at it right away and have success on first and second down.
That leads to the second key: putting Jared Goff in manageable situations. The Packers love to disguise their defense, and their plan probably isn’t to stop Gibbs. It’s built around stopping Goff. If the Lions face third down, it needs to be third-and-4 or shorter, not third-and-8. The same goes for any fourth-down attempt. The good news is Green Bay allows opponents to convert 43.4% of their third downs, so the opportunities will be there.
This is also a good spot for heavier sets. Green Bay isn’t fielding its starters up front, and the Lions have the No. 1 offensive line in the league, according to Pro Football Focus. Open holes for Gibbs and keep Goff on his feet.
Where the Lions can get beat
The disguises are a real problem. If you watched Green Bay against Dallas, you saw the Cowboys struggle with them all game. Detroit’s offensive line is far better than Dallas’, which should help, but safety Evan Williams is the player to watch.
The Packers will line Williams up like a blitzer and then drop him into coverage after the snap. A quarterback sees that look and thinks a certain window is open. Once the ball is snapped, Williams drops back and the window disappears. That’s how you create pressure without actually pressuring the quarterback. Now he has to speed up his progressions because the throw he wanted isn’t there anymore. With Williams and Xavier McKinney back there, that’s a very good safety group, and Detroit can’t get fooled.
Defensively, the Lions have to do to Tucker Kraft what they did to Trey McBride in the last game against the Cardinals. Green Bay runs a tight end-led offense, so Keith Abney coming down to bracket Kraft makes a lot of sense. Getting Brian Branch back helps a ton here, too.
Then there’s the deep ball. The Packers’ approach is basically “get the ball or get the call.” If their receivers don’t make the catch, they’re often drawing a defensive pass interference flag instead. Pride of Detroit’s Jeremy Reisman shared a stat this week showing the Packers lead the league in drawing DPI calls. That has burned the Lions before. Look back at the Jets game a few weeks ago, when D.J. Reed drew back-to-back DPI flags that led to a touchdown.
Lions fans are worried about getting burned deep, and Jordan Love throws a great deep ball. Detroit has already allowed 28 explosive plays, and it’ll probably give up a big one Sunday. The goal is to avoid getting beat by it all day.
The bigger worry is the quick game
Here’s what concerns me more. In last year’s matchups, especially the second one, the Packers turned Detroit’s pressure against itself. Carolina did the same thing a few weeks ago this season. Get the ball out fast, and the pass rush stops mattering.
The fix is bringing the secondary down and keeping everything in front. A quick 5-yard throw can’t turn into a 15-yard gain because nobody was close enough to tackle the receiver. Dan Campbell addressed this Monday, so at least there’s an understanding that it could happen again.
If I’m Kelvin Sheppard, I’m disguising blitzes all day. Make it look like the heat is coming without actually bringing it. Green Bay already knows the Lions want to pressure the quarterback, and that’s exactly why the fake should work.
What decides the game and the final prediction
I think this is a shootout. Both defenses are either struggling or missing pieces, so the game comes down to who makes stops when it matters.
I trust Detroit’s offense more than Green Bay’s. The Lions are at home, and Branch’s return should bring some emotion along with a real boost on defense. I have the Lions winning 35-31 because they make a couple of key stops late.
It should be a fun one. We’ll see what happens Sunday.
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