The Detroit Lions host the Minnesota Vikings at Ford Field on Sunday in a big NFC North matchup. The Lions will debut their Rivalries jerseys. The real story, though, is a Lions offense led by quarterback Jared Goff going against a Vikings defense that might be on its way to becoming one of the best units we’ve seen in a long time.

I joined A to Z Sports’ Tyler Fornes for a Lions-Vikings crossover prediction lab to break it all down. My conclusion is that this game comes down to one thing.

The Vikings defense is legit, even if the schedule makes you wonder

Minnesota has allowed three points in the fourth quarter this season. That’s three points across every fourth quarter it has played. That’s very hard to do, and this group has a chance to be a historic defense.

Still, part of me looks at the schedule and wonders who the Vikings have actually beaten. The Week 1 win was impressive, but it was weird. Week 2 was played in the rain, so it’s hard to judge. After that came the Saints, Colts, and Dolphins. Those teams aren’t going anywhere fast, and most of them have quarterbacks they will probably replace.

Tyler pushed back on that. He pointed out that the Saints offense had been scoring a lot of points and did nothing against Minnesota. He’s right about that. That’s why this game matters so much. If the Vikings go out and dominate one of the best offenses and one of the best offensive lines in the league, I’m out of reasons to doubt them.

For Lions fans, don’t base your expectations on last year’s Christmas Day loss. Detroit started Dan Skipper at left tackle that day. He is now on the coaching staff. Penei Sewell was hurt, and the Lions were missing both of their top tight ends. That was a decimated team, and Vikings fans shouldn’t expect to see it again.

Defensive coordinator Brian Flores’ plan against Jared Goff

Minnesota blitzed 85.3% of the time last week. Tyler made a good point about that number. For Flores, a five-man rush is the base call. The Vikings also play a lot of zone, and per Fantasy Points data, they use man coverage just 8.2% of the time, which ranks 31st in the league. On top of that, linebackers Blake Cashman and Eric Wilson are having huge years. One attacks the center, and the other loops around to hammer the running back in protection.

That puts pressure on Jahmyr Gibbs. Pass protection isn’t his strength, although he’s improved. If the Vikings force him off the field, they only have to worry about Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams.

Goff has been the best quarterback in the league against the blitz. He’s completing 74.1% of his passes when blitzed, the best mark in the NFL, with 452 passing yards, four touchdown passes, and no interceptions. He’s also among the league leaders in completion percentage under pressure. He’s having the best season of his career.

The problem is that the Vikings have taken away the short passing game, and that has made life hard for everyone. The Packers read Detroit’s screen game like a book, and you can expect Minnesota to be ready for it too. Petzing has to open things up, and that starts with the run game. Gibbs had what I’d call a bad game against Green Bay and still ran for 116 yards.

I have full confidence in Petzing. Whatever he and Goff have planned has to include some patience. I don’t think they’ll throw deep on the first play. I think they’ll test what’s available, try to put the Vikings to sleep a bit, and then take a shot to Williams.

The Lions defense gets a chance to prove it’s real

On the other side, Minnesota’s offense has struggled with Kyler Murray, although Justin Jefferson is still on the roster. The scary part is Murray’s ability to get out of the pocket.

Detroit’s defense has looked better over the last two weeks. D.J. Reed is playing better football. Keith Abney’s move to safety has been a fun development. Brian Branch was the highest-graded defensive player for the Lions against Green Bay, and his versatility lets everyone else focus on their own job. The defensive line leads the league in sacks, and the team is top-five in pressures. Alim McNeill looks like a possible All-Pro.

Kerby Joseph has had his practice window opened, but I’m guessing he doesn’t play on Sunday.

The first priority is stopping the run and making Minnesota one-dimensional. You’d like to see this group prove its improvement against one of the worst offenses in the league. If it lays an egg, the sky will be falling again in Detroit.

Lions vs. Vikings prediction

I have the Lions winning 17-14. Playing at home takes away the communication problems you’d face at U.S. Bank Stadium. I just can’t fully trust this Vikings defense yet, and I trust this Detroit offense.

Tyler sees it differently. He likes the Vikings in a 16-10 game, with about 65% confidence, and he’s counting on Minnesota’s defense and special teams to carry it.

It all comes down to whether Goff can keep getting the ball out quickly against this pressure. If he can do that all game, the Lions win. Let’s see what Petzing has planned.