The first thing to know about the Lions’ opponent: The Bills have a trap the Lions fell into a lot last year
Buffalo used three tight ends on more than a third of its Week 1 snaps, but Josh Allen wasn’t handing the ball off. That creates a difficult personnel decision for a Lions defense that just had problems with tight ends and tempo.
The first thing to know about the Buffalo Bills is that their biggest offensive personnel package might also be their most dangerous passing package, and that could affect the Detroit Lions on Thursday. When you hear that Buffalo used three tight ends on more than a third of its offensive snaps against Houston, you probably picture a heavy running formation. Three tight ends, one running back, one receiver. It looks like the Bills are trying to line up and run the ball at you.
Here’s the thing. Buffalo barely ran the ball against Houston. The Bills finished with just 63 yards on 15 handoffs. They used three tight end formations to create opportunities for quarterback Josh Allen to push the ball downfield. That’s what makes this formation such a problem for Detroit heading into Thursday night’s game.
The matchup dilemma facing the Lions defense
If the Lions respond with bigger defensive personnel, Buffalo can create favorable passing matchups for tight end Dalton Kincaid. If Detroit stays small to defend the pass, the Bills could run against a lighter box. Then you still have wide receiver DJ Moore outside demanding attention and Allen’s ability to take off when everything else is covered. The defense has to make a decision, and Allen gets to attack whatever that decision leaves exposed.
We saw what that looked like against Houston. Allen completed five passes that gained at least 30 yards. He averaged more than 13 air yards per attempt, his highest mark in a game since 2023. Kincaid caught five passes for 130 yards, while Moore caught five for 100 yards and a touchdown. Kincaid, Dawson Knox, and Jackson Hawes were all heavily involved in the offense. Kincaid played 72% of Buffalo’s offensive snaps, Knox played 67%, and Hawes played 43%.
Those tight ends weren’t just extra blockers. They were helping Buffalo dictate which defenders Houston put on the field, and then Kincaid was attacking those matchups vertically. That should immediately get the Lions’ attention.
New Orleans already exposed this weakness
The Saints’ tight ends made several of the biggest plays in Sunday’s comeback against Detroit. Juwan Johnson caught the touchdown that sent the game to overtime and then had a 27-yard reception during New Orleans’ overtime drive. Noah Fant caught the touchdown that brought the Saints within one point. Now Detroit has to turn around on a short week and deal with Kincaid, who just torched Houston in a similar role.
There’s another concern here too. Lions coach Dan Campbell acknowledged Monday that New Orleans created problems by speeding up the tempo and occasionally getting Detroit’s defense out of position. Campbell expects Buffalo to test that because the Bills already use tempo as part of their offense. That means Detroit could be dealing with heavy personnel, unusual formations, defensive substitution issues, and an offense quickly getting to the line before everyone has time to communicate.
That is a huge test for the Lions defense, because you saw what it did to them on Sunday against the Saints.
Can the Lions adjust?
There are a few ways to look at this. You could look at it and say the Lions have seen this type of offense before and they at least have a better idea of how to adjust to it now. The other way, of course, is that they don’t adjust and the Bills run roughshod on them. That’s very possible.
The Lions’ defense is designed to stop the run, whereas the Bills’ offense is a formation designed to make it look like a run when it might not actually be a run. I don’t think Buffalo really wants to run as much as you might think. James Cook is one of the better running backs in the league and they barely ran him against Houston. They may not be looking to do a whole lot of running against Detroit. I’m sure they would like to establish the run to some degree, like most teams do, but the heavy personnel is a trap.
The Lions have to figure out what Buffalo is really trying to create before Allen finds the matchup he wants. Detroit struggled with this last year against the Rams and the Steelers, these heavy sets and heavy personnel groupings. Let’s see if Week 2 Thursday night is the night the Lions learn how to read this a little bit better. If they don’t, it’s going to be a similar thing. Josh Allen putting up big plays.
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