What day Lions fans should expect Detroit to finally make a trade before the deadline
Detroit has 13 days until the NFL trade deadline, but 20 years of league history and Brad Holmes’ own track record suggest Lions fans may need to wait until the very end.
Every time I post an article or a video about the Detroit Lions, the comments section asks the same question. When are the Lions going to make a trade? Lions fans want to know why GM Brad Holmes hasn’t pulled the trigger yet, and with the NFL trade deadline 13 days away, the frustration makes sense.
My answer is pretty simple. Probably not right now. History, both around the league and with Holmes specifically, says the Lions are much more likely to make their move on deadline day than at any point before it.
What 20 years of trade deadline history tells us
Ryan Pagnetti, an analytics and strategy consultant, broke down on X how many trade deadline deals have been made on each day leading up to the deadline over the last 20 years. The numbers back up everything you’d expect.
At 12 days out, there have been only two trades in the last 20 years. At eight days out, that number climbs to 10 trades. One week away, it’s 14 trades. The day before the deadline, it’s 18 trades.
Then comes the big one. On deadline day itself, there have been 58 trades over the last 20 years.
That tells you all you need to know right off the bat. I’m not saying with 100% certainty that the Lions will wait until the deadline. But the odds lean heavily in that direction.
Brad Holmes has always waited until deadline day
For starters, look at Holmes’ own history. He has made three deadline trades since becoming the Lions’ GM, and all three of them happened on deadline day.
In 2022, Holmes traded tight end T.J. Hockenson to the Minnesota Vikings. That deal came together a few hours before the 4 p.m. ET deadline. A year later, Detroit traded for wide receiver Donovan Peoples-Jones on deadline day, less than an hour before the deadline itself. Then in 2024, the Lions traded for edge rusher Za’Darius Smith early in the morning on deadline day.
Three deadline trades. Three deadline-day trades. Teams are going to milk this thing for as long as they can, and Holmes is no exception.
Why sellers are holding out
I’ve been trying to gather and read as much intel as I possibly can. Beyond what the Indianapolis Colts have done, everything I’ve read says teams aren’t looking to trade right now. They want to make sure they’re fully out of it first.
Even the Los Angeles Chargers, who are 0-6, are still giving the impression that they plan to stand pat despite receiving calls. You never know what can happen, and the Lions are a good example of that. Go back to 2022. By the deadline, hope was lost. Everyone knew this team was done. Then Detroit went on a magical run and finished a Seattle Seahawks loss away from making the playoffs.
That’s why teams are playing it as safe as they can. Look at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They’re 2-5, but they’re in a bad NFC South and still have a chance to win the division. Why would they want to sell?
The Colts are the team that makes the most sense, and that’s why I keep bringing them up. Indianapolis is in a full-on rebuild, and I don’t see this team making the playoffs. I’d expect them to move on from coach Shane Steichen after this season no matter what happens.
They’re already trading away assets, and they need draft picks. Last season, the Colts made an insane trade, sending two first-round picks and wide receiver Adonai Mitchell, who now plays for the New York Jets, for Sauce Gardner. Now Indianapolis doesn’t have a first-round pick in a draft that’s going to be massive for it. Even with Daniel Jones, the Colts are probably going to be looking for a new quarterback, a new head coach, and a new GM this offseason. When you’re rebuilding, you stockpile picks.
That makes Indy your only real option for getting something done earlier.
If you want to talk about someone like Riq Woolen with the Philadelphia Eagles, well, the Eagles are in a not-so-great NFC East. Even though it seems like most of the hope has gone away for them, I’m sure they’ll want to wait a couple of weeks to make sure it’s truly gone before they start selling. They did trade Cam Jurgens, which was a big surprise, so maybe Woolen is on the table. If you’re thinking about Quinyon Mitchell or Cooper DeJean, you can stop right there. That isn’t happening.
So Lions fans are just going to have to be a little more patient. It’s less than two weeks, and by then we’ll know exactly what this team is going to do.
My final answer is deadline day. We’ll see what happens.
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