What Jahmyr Gibbs’ massive extension with the Detroit Lions is likely to look like after Bijan Robinson’s big deal
Detroit Lions now know exactly what they have to beat after Bijan Robinson reset the RB market. Here’s what Jahmyr Gibbs’ extension could realistically look like.
Huge news for the Detroit Lions on Tuesday morning. The Atlanta Falcons locked up Bijan Robinson with an extension that makes him the highest-paid running back in NFL history. Robinson signed a 3-year deal with a max value of $75 million, $25 million per year in average annual value, and a massive $51 million guaranteed. That makes Robinson the man in every category: guaranteed money, total value, and average annual value per season.
The Falcons did add in a little bit of an incentive structure. The deal is actually 3 years, $66.75 million with an additional $8.25 million in incentives. Those are probably tied to making a Pro Bowl, making an All-Pro team, rushing for a certain amount of yards, and so on.
Gibbs has the ball firmly in his court
For the Lions, they’re now in the position where they’re going to have to get Jahmyr Gibbs his deal, and Gibbs has the ball firmly in his court. Over the weekend, it became pretty clear that Robinson was going to go first. Robinson and Gibbs have had this whole thing going this entire offseason. It’s been a race to who’s going to get there first, but whoever gets there first loses because the second guy is going to get more.
Well, Robinson got there first. That means Gibbs is going to beat him. Gibbs is in line for a massive deal. So we wanted to work up what we think that contract is going to look like.
The projected deal
Here’s a projection of what Gibbs’ deal could look like to beat Robinson and become the highest-paid running back in NFL history. We have a 3-year deal, up to $78 million with incentives. The base structure is 3 years, $68 million, with $10 million available in incentives. He gets a guaranteed $54 million, which beats Robinson’s $51 million, and he’ll have an average annual value of $26 million per year, which beats Robinson’s $25 million.
Cap structure breakdown
| Year | Base Salary | Bonus Proration | Cap Hit | Dead Money |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.25M | $4.86M | $6.11M | $54.0M |
| 2027 (5th-year option) | $13.70M | $4.86M | $18.56M | $49.1M |
| 2028 | $9.50M | $4.86M | $14.36M | $44.2M |
| 2029 | $15.75M | $4.86M | $20.61M | $29.2M |
| 2030 | $29.05M | $4.86M | $33.91M | $14.6M |
| 2031 (Void) | — | $4.86M | $4.86M | — |
| 2032 (Void) | — | $4.86M | $4.86M | — |
The cap hits would break down like this. In 2026, you have a $6.11 million cap hit. In 2027, you have the fifth-year option, which hits plus a little bit of the bonus proration, bringing it to an $18.56 million cap hit. In 2028, when the extension starts, his cap hit goes back down to $14.36 million. Then you get $20.61 million in 2029 and $33.91 million in 2030, with two void years after that.
What is likely to happen is that in 2030, when Gibbs will be just 28 years old, Detroit may look to extend him again, assuming he’s still the running back he is now. The Lions would essentially use those 2031 and 2032 void years as extra years for Gibbs and spread that money out. They’ll either restructure or extend him and keep him around. It could happen as early as 2029.
The way the Lions structure their deals is great because it allows them to still have money on the cap. A lot of the guaranteed money gets paid out early, and they’ll still have cap room to sign free agents or extend other guys. Detroit is probably hoping that some of the rookies they’ve recently drafted in 2025 and 2026 will be players they’ll want to extend at some point soon.
The incentive structure
| Incentive | Amount |
|---|---|
| 1,500 rushing yards | $1.5M |
| 2,000 scrimmage yards | $1.5M |
| 18 total touchdowns | $1.5M |
| First-Team All-Pro | $2.0M |
| Offensive Player of the Year | $2.0M |
| Super Bowl MVP | $1.5M |
| Maximum | $10.0M |
Here’s how we worked up the incentives. If Gibbs gets 1,500 rushing yards, he gets $1.5 million. If he gets 2,000 scrimmage yards, he gets an extra $1.5 million. If he gets 18 total touchdowns, he gets $1.5 million. If he makes the first-team All-Pro, he gets $2 million. If he wins Offensive Player of the Year, he gets another $2 million. If he wins the Super Bowl MVP, he gets $1.5 million. That totals up to $10 million.
All of these things are pretty achievable for Gibbs, who is definitely going to be in the first-team All-Pro and Offensive Player of the Year conversation, as he has been. The Super Bowl MVP is the big one to chase, but the top four incentives are almost a lock.
We’ll see what the actual deal looks like, but this is what we think Gibbs is going to get. It’s going to be huge. It’s going to make him the highest-paid running back ever, but there’s going to be room for the Lions to do other things. Let’s see what happens.
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