Packers take a gamble with questionable draft decision, why it could backfire and the reasoning behind their choice
Green Bay traded back into the sixth round on Saturday to draft kicker Trey Smack. That happens three years after they took Anders Carlson in the same round.
The Green Bay Packers had an impressive draft in terms of process, combining value and the ability to attack needs. Well, that at least until the end of the sixth round. There, the Packers sent two seventh-rounders to the Seattle Seahawks to move back into the sixth, when they selected Florida kicker Trey Smack.
While a late sixth is not exactly a huge investment, and the Packers have suffered at the kicker position for a few years, history and data show the decision is suboptimal — even if there’s obviously a chance for Smack to turn into a great player.
Why drafting kickers is a bad process
There are several reasons to justify the premise of not drafting kickers. First, the value between an elite kicker and an average one should be big considering the high-leverage moments. But performance there is so inconsistent that an elite kicker offers something around 0.3 wins above a replacement-level player a year.
But that’s only the first small reason. Punters are not as impactful on a value premise either, but drafting them is still a better process.
The big aspect is that, historically, NFL teams aren’t effective at scouting them.
Brian Gutekunst’s joke aside, he explained the process to scout special teamers after the decision to take Trey Smack in the sixth round. And that includes a bigger input from position coaches than regular offensive or defensive picks.
“Obviously, all our guys are trained to scout kickers and different things, but I do think it’s a special skill,” Gutekunst admitted. “And I do think with the special teams coaches, I’ve always felt that you need to lean on them a little bit. They spend a lot of time with that. I think there are certain things our scouts look for, and they’ll have strong opinions, but I do think the special teams coaches will have strong opinions too. You try to take it all in and make the best decision, but with the special teams coaches you do lean on those guys a little bit more because it is a very specialized skill.”
Former Sumer Sports analyst Eric Eager, who’s now the Carolina Panthers vice president of football analytics, wrote an extensive article about the topic. His main conclusion: The career results of drafted kickers are not better than undrafted ones.
The third aspect is development. Unlike regular positions where a rookie can be the backup while he develops, the vast majority of NFL teams carry only one kicker on the 53-man roster — and if you draft a kicker, you won’t cut him to try to add him to the practice squad, because chances are another team will claim him off waivers.
At most positions, the rookie can play here and there as a rotational piece or as a part of a larger group that will help him hide his weaknesses.
“All players go through tough times in the National Football League,” Gutekunst mentioned. “Kickers are front and center because it’s not like they have the same margin for error. If a guard misses a block and the guy goes for 20 yards, nobody’s on him like if a guy misses a kick, so it’s a little different that way. I certainly expect all these rookies to come in and have tough times, and that’s part of the National Football League. But I do think, again, what we did to move up to get him, we obviously think very highly of him. We think he has a very good chance to succeed in this league.”
The only comparable position is quarterback. But in this case, first, the scouting process is much more diligent, and second, the investment is so huge that teams tend to have more patience. At kicker, the player will be forced into action from the jump. And if he’s bad, there’s not much room to wait — Anders Carlson, for example, spent just one regular season with the Packers.
Finally, it’s relatively easy to find competent or even high-level kicker play utilizing different avenues. Brandon Aubrey, a former soccer player, started his football career in the USFL before signing with the Dallas Cowboys, and now he’s the highest-paid kicker in NFL history. You can sign free agents, just like the Packers found Brandon McManus in 2024, and the cost is not that high.
Packers’ reasoning
All of those factors indicate taking a kicker is a bad process. None of those means Trey Smack will be a bad player. Sometimes in the NFL, bad process leads to good results and vice-versa — that’s just the nature of football.
The Packers were in full agreement that Smack was the top kicker in this class, so much so that they packaged two seventh-rounders to move back into the sixth to take him.
“It was really the way the board fell, quite frankly, more than anything,” Gutekunst revealed. “We obviously liked him quite a bit, and I think he has a good chance to be a good kicker in the National Football League. But the way the board was falling, where we were sitting in the seventh round, I didn’t feel great about what we were going to have to select during those two picks, and it didn’t feel great that he would be there then, so we made the decision to do that.”
