Packers’ defense may be on verge of major positive regression in 2026, and it could unlock massive potential for a dominant unit
Green Bay had a great turnover season two years ago, and it naturally regressed last season. If the unit can go back to average, the improvement is inevitable.
The 2025 season was obviously not what the Green Bay Packers expected, especially on defense. The unit had been fourth in EPA/play in 2024, and after adding Micah Parsons, it was easy to project big improvement. However, that never happened.
Be that because defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley became more conservative with Parsons or because of the lack of talent at the cornerback position, the Packers materially regressed in 2025. Now with Jonathan Gannon, though, there’s a clear reason for optimism.
Positive regression is about to kick in
While there were real issues about how the 2025 Packers defense was constructed and how it operated, much of the failure was unsustainable.
Football analysts usually talk about regression candidates, but positive regression is real as well, and Green Bay’s defense has a strong case for it.
The main reason is the lack of turnovers. Even with talent on the roster, the Packers were the fifth team with the lowest number of takeaways last year, just ahead of the Tennessee Titans, Washington Commanders, Dallas Cowboys, and New York Jets, all teams with much less overall talent.
The impact on the defensive results was massive. The Packers finished the regular season 22nd in EPA/play. But excluding plays with turnovers for every NFL team, Green Bay jumped to 13th.
It wasn’t just the lack of talent, coaching, or execution. A similar roster with the same coaching staff was fourth in EPA/play in 2024, and dropped to seventh without turnovers. They were also 21st in success rate. That combination of stats shows that the 2024 Packers were too reliant on turnovers, and the natural regression came in the following season.
New system, same mantra
Just like every new coach ever, Jonathan Gannon stressed during his introductory press conference the importance of takeaways.
“I’m really big into play style, as Matt [LaFleur] is, and the game is about the ball,” Gannon said. “So you gotta find ways to take it away, and our job is to get Jordan [Love] back on the field as quick as we can. So schematic and technical execution and play fast.”
According to RBSDM, the Packers’ defense was 22nd in luck rate — positive plays that are not necessarily under the team’s control or are unsustainable: fumble recovery, third-down conversion allowed, redzone touchdown rate allowed.
It’s hard to know when a team will become elite or great at those factors. But if the Packers can just get back to average, combined with Micah Parsons’ returning from his ACL injury and the investments made around the unit, there is a fair expectation for improvement under Gannon in 2026.