The Patrick Mahomes vs Josh Allen debate has officially jumped the shark
The Kansas City Chiefs have been on one of the best runs this side of the Patriots’ dynasty. Yet this debate will seemingly never die.
The stock has, admittedly, been higher for the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs are fresh off of a 6-win season, with quarterback Patrick Mahomes succumbing to a season-ending injury in 2025.
It’s opened the door for plenty of fresh debate about Mahomes and his standing in the NFL’s quarterback hierarchy — which is an exhausting exercise from top to bottom. Yet, the debate has raged on all offseason, especially in relation to Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen. A recent piece by ESPN has tabbed Allen the presumptive “All-Decade” choice at quarterback. And, in the process, he’s helped the Josh Allen versus Patrick Mahomes debate to officially jump the shark.
The Patrick Mahomes & Josh Allen debate has officially jumped the shark
“Allen would be the quarterback on the All-Decade first team if it were to be released tomorrow, although there would be at least some debate about instead awarding it to Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes. Every single All-Decade quarterback is enshrined in the Hall besides Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers, who will be first-ballot entrants. Regardless, Allen will join them.”
— ESPN’s Bill Barnwell
“SOME DEBATE?” Look, here’s the thing you have to know about Bill Barnwell. He’s a numbers guy. He’s going to look at ‘total touchdowns’, see that Josh Allen has 291 total touchdowns in the regular season and postseason since 2020, and that’s going to be the end of the debate. Period. And to Josh Allen’s credit, he does does have 48 more touchdowns than Mahomes since 2020.
But Allen also has 18 more turnovers. Mahomes has a major edge in cumulative drop back Expected Points Added (EPA) if you want to got the metrics route. The two are tied on an EPA/drop back figure, however. Crunch time numbers? Mahomes 22 4th-quarter comebacks since 2020 is tops in the league, too. Allen is 5th with 12. Both quarterbacks have one MVP in their pocket since 2020, as well. Then there’s the head-to-head stuff.
That, of course, sits overwhelmingly in Mahomes’ favor. The Chiefs are 4-0 head to head against the Bills in the postseason. Since 2020, the Chiefs have won the AFC four times and raised the Lombardi twice. Buffalo? Well, Josh Allen has two AFC Championship Game appearances.
This ultimately is one of two things: the ultimate recency bias is behind door number one. Door number two? Being a prisoner of one, singular number. Total touchdowns. That’s about the only way one could arrive at this position. I don’t happen to believe that’s very good process — these conversations are deeper than that. Unless, perhaps, your name is Bill Barnwell.
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