You may think the Minnesota Vikings are a little fraudulent at 5-0, but they have earned every bit of that record. Their next test comes Sunday against the Indianapolis Colts. Beating a 2-4 Colts team shouldn’t be that hard on paper, but this sets up as a weird trap game for Minnesota.

The Vikings want this to become a division-winning season and potentially a Super Bowl run. That path is going to get longer on Sunday, as the Colts will likely come out playing hard after they fired general manager Chris Ballard earlier in the week. The key to beating Indianapolis is simple: Brian Flores’ defense needs to put Daniel Jones on the ground.

Why the Colts could come out swinging

Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell wanted to keep Jones in the building ahead of last season, and former general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah felt the same. They couldn’t get it done, and Jones smartly landed in Indianapolis. He had a strong season, and the Colts paid him a two-year deal worth up to $100 million after he tore his Achilles nine games in.

Now the Colts are 2-4, and Ballard lost his job over it. That matters for Sunday. Teams often play incredibly hard for a game or two after a firing. My favorite college football team, the Florida Gators, fired head coach Billy Napier after the homecoming game against Mississippi State, and in Billy Gonzales’ first game, a 4-8 Florida team took a top-5 Georgia team to the wire.

It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Colts respond the same way, especially given how beloved Ballard is as a person. He’s a great talent evaluator, but piecing together a roster proved to not be his strongest suit, and oddly enough, Jones might be one of his biggest mistakes.

Daniel Jones is cratering against the blitz

Jones hasn’t played good football this season, and his biggest problem lines up perfectly with how Flores attacks quarterbacks. Jones has been blitzed on 75 dropbacks, going 41-of-67 for 377 yards and a touchdown with one big-time throw and one turnover-worthy play.

The underlying numbers tell the story. Against the blitz, his average depth of target sits at 5.6 yards with a 2.44-second time to throw. The Vikings want to force you into quick game, and then they have quick game covered up well. Between the simulated pressures and unique blitz designs, it’s very difficult to beat Minnesota with short, fast concepts, and it will be harder to do without tight end Tyler Warren, who will miss the game due to a groin injury.

Jones also doesn’t look comfortable in the pocket. Under pressure, his completion percentage drops from 61.2% to 47.2%, as he’s just 34-of-72 with two interceptions and seven turnover-worthy plays. Overall, he has six big-time throws to 15 turnover-worthy plays, a huge reason why Indianapolis sits at 2-4.

Minnesota also knows him well. Jones spent two months with the Vikings at the end of the 2024 season as a potential bridge for J.J. McCarthy. He smartly took the opportunity in Indianapolis, where he won the job over Anthony Richardson. Instead of facing Flores’ defense, he could have just practiced against it.

Vikings defense is in elite territory

Jonathan Taylor is still a very good running back with home-run ability. However, his history against Minnesota isn’t great. He sprained his ankle in the first quarter of the 2022 matchup and didn’t finish, then was ineffective in the Joe Flacco-started game on Sunday Night Football, when the Colts’ lone touchdown came from their defense.

The Vikings aren’t flawless, but they rank first in the NFL in a long list of categories:

• First in blitz rate and pressure rate 
• First in scoring defense (12.8 points per game)
• Third in passing yards allowed per game
• Second in rushing yards allowed per game
• First in third-down conversion percentage (22.2%)
• First in red zone percentage (25%, just three touchdowns on 12 trips)
• First in drives allowing a touchdown (24.1%)
• First in turnover percentage (16.7%) 
• First in points per drive allowed (1.09)

That EPA number means that for roughly every 28 plays, Minnesota takes a touchdown’s worth of expected points off the board. In passing EPA per play, the gap between the Vikings and second-place Seattle matches the gap between Seattle and the 22nd-ranked New York Giants.

The offense hasn’t been whole yet

This is where things get really interesting. For starters, quarterback Kyler Murray has controlled the ball, and done so without a full complement of weapons for all but 18 snaps. The Vikings are second in the NFL in time of possession at 33 minutes and 37 seconds, and that includes two games in which Murray played only 11 snaps. Minnesota also ranks fourth with just four turnovers. One came on the second offensive play of the season, when an unblocked rusher forced Murray into a throw that Keisean Nixon intercepted.

Murray hasn’t been as explosive as many hoped, but he has found calculated ways to stay aggressive while playing complementary football. Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison are both projected to play Sunday, and their first snap together will be just the 19th snap they have been eligible to share this season.

Indianapolis will be without cornerback Sauce Gardner and possibly nickel Justin Walley. If Charvarius Ward draws Jefferson, who covers Addison and Jauan Jennings? Jefferson has said his production will come, and it’s taking a little more time.

This offense feels like it’s about to break out. Sunday has trap-game written on it, though. Nobody wants the weird to happen, but don’t be surprised if it does.