4 keys to Vikings beating Bears focuses on containing Caleb Williams and Kevin O’Connell continuing one offensive element
The Minnesota Vikings getting to 2-0 will be tough in beating the Chicago Bears, and it lies on multiple factors.
The Minnesota Vikings travel to Soldier Field to face the Chicago Bears on Sunday afternoon, and several factors will determine whether they leave with a win.
Over the last six years, the Vikings haven’t lost a single game to the Bears at Soldier Field. In fact, the last time the Vikings lost at Soldier Field was the infamous Stefon Diggs blow-up, where he said after the game “there’s truth to all rumors” regarding his frustration and future with the team.
If the Vikings are going to get a seventh-consecutive win at Soldier Field, these four things will be key.
Who’s playing quarterback for the Vikings?
The biggest question entering Sunday is whether quarterback Kyler Murray will suit up. As of Thursday’s injury report, Murray was again limited in practice, which means he has not cleared the concussion protocol‘s fifth and final stage. To fully clear, a player must go through a full practice with no limitations.
Murray is likely on stage 4, which involves limited participation in practice. Stage 3 is also limited but more on an individual drill basis. If he is on stage 4, there’s a real chance he clears the protocol on Friday, which is the day Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell indicated the team would make its decision.
The positive and negative for Murray is that, to the best of available knowledge, he has never suffered a diagnosed concussion before Sunday’s game. That means he’s also never experienced what a concussion feels like. Something that might feel just a smidge off to him could be something he doesn’t recognize as abnormal. He could feel better quickly but then have adverse effects after practice that he chalks up to nothing because he’s never had those experiences. That makes re-aggravation easier, because once you suffer one concussion, it becomes easier to suffer a second, third, fourth, and fifth.
Even if Murray clears the protocol and practices fully on Friday, the Vikings have to weigh whether it’s worth putting him out there with another 15 games plus a potential playoff run ahead. Everything is up in the air, and this could be posturing, but based on how Murray handled the situation after the Green Bay game, talking with teammates in the locker room, there’s a sense he might be 100% ready to go.
Blitzing Caleb Williams is the key, but it comes with risk
On the other side, Williams is healthy and coming off a strong performance against the Carolina Panthers: 269 passing yards while Chicago’s running game nearly hit 300 yards at 7.5 yards per carry in a 59-point outburst. His Pro Football Focus grade of 64.0 generated some controversy because it didn’t reflect how well he played, but PFF focuses on the process rather than the result. A great result doesn’t matter if the way you got there was unsustainable.
Flores has faced Williams four times, and his blitz rates tell a fascinating story. At Soldier Field, the numbers were 44.4% in Week 12 of 2024 and 40.9% in Week 1 last year. At U.S. Bank Stadium, those numbers skyrocket: 60% in Week 15 of 2024 and 77.8% in Week 11 last year.
My theory is that Flores doesn’t want to put his defensive backs in positions to execute complex disguised looks on Soldier Field’s playing surface, which is arguably the worst in the NFL. The field turf at U.S. Bank Stadium is a quality surface. Soldier Field is not. That changes the defensive game plan.
Against Carolina, Williams was strong when not blitzed: 12 of 14 for 120 yards, a touchdown, one big-time throw, and an 87.4 PFF grade on 17 non-blitzed dropbacks. When blitzed on 21 dropbacks (55.3%), he completed 9 of 15 for 148 yards, a touchdown, and a big-time throw, but also had a turnover-worthy play. His PFF grade dropped to 47.0 with a 50.0 passing grade.
The challenge with blitzing Williams is containment. Can the edge rushers and defensive linemen collapse the pocket fast enough before he becomes a scramble king, which is where he does his best work? Last season, the Vikings really struggled ot wrap up and take down Williams in the pocket, allowing him to attack down the field. Williams has never had a banner game against Minnesota, but he’s had banner moments, like the 11 points in the final 2 minutes at Soldier Field in 2024 when he was a rookie, tying the game before the Bears lost in overtime.
This might be the biggest key to the Vikings winning the game on Sunday.
Aaron Jones’ absence changes the run game equation
The Vikings also need to adjust without running back Jordan Mason, who suffered a broken thumb against the Packers and was placed on short-term injured reserve. He’ll miss at least four weeks, but the timing could work in his favor. After those four weeks, the bye follows, giving him six full weeks before Week 7 to heal after having a procedure to set the thumb.
The run game produced 107 yards on 34 carries against Green Bay for a 3.1 yards-per-carry average. Jones had 12 carries for 40 yards, with Mason carrying the ball 15 times for 59 yards. DeeJay Dallas will likely serve as the RB2 over Demond Claiborne, which is the smart move. Claiborne doesn’t appear ready, and the Vikings seem to agree.
Against a Bears defense that doesn’t have the strongest front, especially after trading Gervon Dexter, the Vikings should attack with zone plays, counters, and runs up the middle. That success could be amplified if Murray plays because he provides another dimension.
Even with that, Jones’ issues with staying healthy could prove to be an issue. He’s missed five games over the past two seasons, but he’s also missed multiple quarters in games he has played.
Dallas Turner needs to wrap up Williams
If the Vikings are going to pressure Williams, it’s likely going to come from Dallas Turner. Against the Packers, Minnesota did a great job keeping Jordan Love in the pocket and preventing him from escaping. Williams is a better athlete than Love and can escape in a much quicker, more explosive manner. Even so, Turner and Andrew Van Ginkel should theoretically keep Williams contained, forcing him forward into Jalen Redmond and Levi Drake Rodriguez, and potentially into cross-dog blitzes from Blake Cashman and Eric Wilson.
The Vikings desperately need to find a way to wrap up Williams. In the Week 1 matchup last year, they had roughly seven near-sacks, but Williams’ strength profile was enough to escape every one, and he was able to make plays.
Williams likes to throw over the middle of the field. Against the Panthers, 15.4% of his throws were in-routes or dig routes, 11.5% were deep crossers, and 30.8% were hitches. He also threw 15.4% go routes and 11.5% screens. Not a single corner route, comeback, slant, or out. The Bears are doing creative things to get the ball to their playmakers, and while Chicago doesn’t have a true alpha receiver, that actually works in Williams’ favor. Without an alpha, he won’t force the ball anywhere and will distribute more effectively.
Williams is the straw that stirs the drink for Chicago, and the Vikings have to control him to win. Ben Johnson is 5-1 against Flores, but the one loss came as the Bears’ head coach, and Flores might be starting to figure things out. Sunday should be a fascinating one.
