Vikings vs. Bears matchup is loaded with interesting elements, and it boils down to Brian Flores vs. Ben Johnson
There are some fascinating elements at play with the chess match between Ben Johnson and Brian Flores.
The Minnesota Vikings take on the Chicago Bears this Sunday afternoon in a game that will feature one of the more compelling schematic battles of the young NFL season. Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores and Bears head coach Ben Johnson have a history, and the way their chess match unfolds could determine the outcome at Soldier Field.
Johnson, of course, was the offensive coordinator for the Detroit Lions before taking the Chicago head coaching job. He was successful against Flores during that stretch, beating him all four times they faced. That’s no easy feat given the level of success Flores has had as the Vikings’ defensive coordinator. Last year, without Johnson calling plays, Flores smoked the Lions twice. There is something to be said about Johnson’s ability to scheme against Flores specifically.
Johnson’s formula worked in Detroit, but does it translate to Chicago?
The one big question about Johnson continuing that success is whether he has the right personnel to do it. The one Flores win against Johnson came because of offensive prowess in the fourth quarter. The others involved special teams and other factors, including J.J. McCarthy’s struggles.
Johnson always thrived against Flores in one main way: quick releases to beat the blitz. That was easy to do with Jared Goff, who is so good pre-snap and will get the ball out within a second and a half, not allowing pressure to arrive. Those answers weren’t there last year with John Morton as offensive coordinator and Dan Campbell calling plays, which is why Detroit couldn’t replicate that success.
Johnson doesn’t have that kind of quarterback right now. Caleb Williams is much more of a create-his-own-opportunities passer who attacks vertically down the field. That creates both opportunities and challenges for Chicago. Can Williams provide those same quick-game answers against Flores? That’s not a certainty, but he may not have to because this Bears offense is built to win in other ways.
Against the Carolina Panthers, Chicago put up 59 points. Some of that was due to defensive success, absolutely. But 261 yards through the air and 291 on the ground with an average of 7.5 yards per carry tells a story. Kyle Monangai had 10 carries for 100 yards and a touchdown. They were gashing everything Carolina tried on defense in explosive fashion.
The blitz question looms large for Caleb Williams
The Vikings were solid against the run against the Green Bay Packers, though they did allow a couple of explosive plays when Green Bay caught them on a blitz to the opposite side while running a power concept the other way. Whether Johnson can exploit those same blitz-vacated lanes will be fascinating.
That brings us to the Flores blitz rate, which was nothing short of psychotic against Jordan Love. Pro Football Focus had 87.1% of Love’s dropbacks involving a blitz. The splits were wild with 100% of Love’s passing production coming against the blitz.
Will Flores attack Williams the same way? Looking at Flores’ history, Minnesota has shown an increasing willingness to blitz Williams, but only when they are facing him at U.S. Bank Stadium. Those rates are lesser when facing off at Soldier Field.
Against the Carolina Panthers, Williams faced a 55.3% blitz rate on 21 dropbacks, going 9-of-15 for 148 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 big-time throw, 1 turnover-worthy play, with 12 pressures and 2 sacks. When not blitzed, he was 12-of-14 for 121 yards and a touchdown on 17 dropbacks with only 4 pressures. If you want to use that small sample to project, blitzing might not be the worst approach for Flores.
Chicago’s weapons are solid, but nobody is elite
What makes things interesting is the Bears have good weapons, but they don’t have anyone elite. Rome Odunze is a solid player with potential breakout upside in Year 3, as is Luther Burden III in his second season. Colston Loveland broke out in Year 1 last year and Cole Kmet is a multifaceted tight end. D’Andre Swift and Monongai are good running backs, but with the totality of their weapons, not one of them scares you individually, and that might actually work in Williams’ favor. Without a true alpha receiver demanding targets, Williams can focus on finding the open man rather than forcing the ball to one guy. That is very interesting
The Bears secondary presents real opportunities for Minnesota
Chicago’s defense has concerns, particularly in the secondary. Cornerback Jaylon Johnson did not have a great game against Carolina, earning a 44.8 PFF grade on 65 snaps while allowing 5 catches on 7 targets for 127 yards, and there’s concern among film evaluators that he might not be the player he once was. Tyrique Stevenson himself allowed 4 of 5 catches for 77 yards and 2 touchdowns, and rookie Malik Muhammad allowed 5 catches on 9 targets for 48 yards as the slot corner, though he did snag an interception and a pass breakup.
Without Kyler Gordon, the secondary looks vulnerable. The safeties, including Dillon Thieneman and Skyler Thomas, can be taken advantage of as well. If Johnson can’t step up, the Vikings might have a field day even with Carson Wentz under center.
The Bears’ pass rush generated 22 pressures on Bryce Young across 41 dropbacks with a 39% blitz rate, but Young still threw for 361 yards and 3 touchdowns. Wentz could put up similar numbers against this defense given the weapons Minnesota has at its disposal.
The Bears are good, but ‘generational offense’ is premature
Chicago is a good football team. However, crowning this offense as generational after one game against the Panthers feels premature. Remember 2024, when the New Orleans Saints put up about 100 points in the first 2 weeks and then crashed back to earth? Do it against a good defense. Do it again, period.
This is going to be a tough matchup for the Vikings, but the schematic chess match between Flores and Johnson is what makes it must-watch television. How Flores decides to deploy his pressure packages against a very different quarterback than the one Johnson used to have in Detroit will define this game.
