Quarterback market in free agency brings different types of players and values at the most important position in the NFL
Great quarterbacks don’t hit the market. That’s how the NFL works, based on how important and valuable it is for the game. So when it’s time to evaluate free agents, don’t expect the best names will ever become available—except for crazy circumstances, like when Peyton Manning got cut by the Indianapolis Colts in 2012. This […]
Great quarterbacks don’t hit the market. That’s how the NFL works, based on how important and valuable it is for the game. So when it’s time to evaluate free agents, don’t expect the best names will ever become available—except for crazy circumstances, like when Peyton Manning got cut by the Indianapolis Colts in 2012.
This year, the player with the biggest track record of production is certainly Russell Wilson, and it’s the first time he reaches unrestricted free agency—last offseason, he was a street free agency after being cut by the Denver Broncos.
There are also younger players with high-end potential but ups and downs throughout their careers, like Sam Darnold and Justin Fields. So let’s discuss the top five options.
This is the first article in our series of top 5 free agent lists per position in the NFL.
Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings
Darnold resurrected his career under Kevin O’Connell on the Vikings. The question now is how sustainable it is, because the quarterback had had multiple failed experiences (New York Jets, Carolina Panthers, and in a smaller sample size with the San Francisco 49ers). So it wasn’t an accident that he played poorly.
He started last season playing almost at an MVP level, and somewhat regressed down the stretch, which can be buyer beware ahead of free agency.
He finished the season with a 102.5 passer rating, 14th in EPA/play, and ninth in success rate. The magic behind the Vikings' process was getting that production with a low cost, so it's hard to replicate the collective performance paying him much more.
A franchise tag is on the table, but more as a tool to trade him and get some compensation.
Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers
At 36, Wilson is not more than a point guard at this point of his career. Last year for the Steelers, he was 21st in EPA/play and 26th in success rate, but had an impressive ratio of big-time throws (5.7%) to turnover-worthy plays (1.7%).
He certainly won't be as cheap as he was for the Steelers, because now there isn't someone else paying his salary. But Wilson will still be a relatively affordable option for a team that wants a short-term bridge alternative.
Justin Fields, Pittsburgh Steelers
Another Steeler quarterback, another free agent. Fields was acquired by Pittsburgh ahead of the final year of his rookie deal and had a career year after three disappointing seasons with the Chicago Bears.
Fields is 25 and brings a lot of athleticism to the table, which creates intriguing possibilities for his offensive coordinator. As a passer, though, he brings significant limitations especially because of how late of a processor he is. His career average time to throw is 3.29, putting stress on the offensive line. He might still be a good value, but it's hard to imagine someone being willing to hand him a starting job without competition.
Jameis Winston, Cleveland Browns
Winston is still fairly young for a quarterback at 31 and has 87 NFL starts, a level of experience that is hard to find in free agency. Last year, he started seven games for the Cleveland Browns and was certainly better than their other options—Deshaun Watson, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Bailey Zappe.
The problem with Winston is well-known. He is highly productive, but the mistakes are equally as impactful—it's impossible to forget that 30 TDs/30 INTs season in 2019. Last season, he had 13 touchdowns and 12 interceptions for the Browns.
Daniel Jones, Minnesota Vikings
Jones is not a top-level starter and regressed after his career season in 2022, the one that incentivized the Giants to give him a four-year, $160 million extension. The former first-round pick is certainly not worth that much, but he can be a viable starter with a low salary.
After being cut by the Giants, he finished last season with the Vikings and didn't play. But it's interesting because he can be the Vikings' option to replace Darnold. Instead of paying Darnold, Jones would be the alternative to replicate the process of building around a distressed asset.
Other options: Jacoby Brissett, Jarrett Stidham, Trey Lance, Marcus Mariota, Joe Flacco, Mac Jones, Carson Wentz, Jimmy Garoppolo.
