The bar has been set for Bucs rookie EDGE Rueben Bain, Jr., and it’s one he could fly over
Tampa Bay’s rookie defender’s expected production has been set, and he easily has the ability to surpass it.
The hype train for rookie EDGE Rueben Bain, Jr. has officially left the station, and the hope among Bucs fans is that the former Miami Hurricane will help a Tampa Bay defense finally find a way to generate a consistent pass rush off the edge.
Naturally, the question is, just how big of an impact could Bain have as a rookie in 2026? Given the inclination is to look first at sack production, let’s take a look at what the supposed experts have listed as the over/under or baseline number for Bain to reach in the sack department.
According to ESPN, who put out their rookie projection totals for various stats on Tuesday, Bain is projected to have the third-highest sack total at 5.6. That trails Cowboys EDGE Malachi Lawrence (5.7) and Jets EDGE David Bailey (7.6).
DraftKings has odds of -150 for Bain to total 6.0+ sacks and +150 for 8.0+. So 7.0+ is somewhere in the middle of their expectation.
Basically 6-7 sacks is the expected range here. And that’s a number that is well within reach for Bain.
ESPN and DraftKings have expected sack numbers set for Rueben Bain, Jr., and they are both certainly attainable
Bucs OLB coach Larry Foote, who played with the great James Harrison in Pittsburgh, has an eye for tremendous linebacker play, and he says the bet is on Bain becoming a star.
“[Based] off the film, if you had to bet, he’s gonna be a star. Just the way he plays the game: He’s explosive, plays with great leverage, and it’s hard to block those type of guys. Back in my Pittsburgh days, [I] played with a guy, James Harrison, like that. [You] just couldn’t block him, and [Bain Jr.] has that trait, he has that ability.”
A double-digit sack total for a rookie edge rusher is not a common thing. Micah Parsons in 2021 (13.0) and James Pearce, Jr. (10.5) last year are the most recent to do it. It proves that it takes something special for a rookie edge rusher to make that quick of a mark in the NFL.
And perhaps that history is why the projected sack totals for the rookie rushers are as low as they are. But if Foote’s take is correct, Bain could find himself joining that elite company by the end of the season.