The Tampa Bay Buccaneers open the 2026 regular season on the road against the Cincinnati Bengals, and while Baker Mayfield just secured a massive new contract extension, there are real concerns about whether Tampa Bay can keep up with Cincinnati’s firepower in Week 1.

From Rueben Bain Jr.’s highly anticipated debut to a Buccaneers secondary facing Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, this game has the makings of a shootout with significant question marks on the both sides of the ball.

And on the other side of the coin: Can the Bengals get off to a fast start and avoid another early-season loss that’s become all too frequent over the last several seasons?

A to Z Sports Tampa Bay’s Evan Winter and A to Z Sports Cincinnati’s John Sheeran recently joined forces to break down the matchup.

Baker Mayfield’s extension changes the dynamic

The timing of Mayfield’s new deal caught some off guard. Just days before the season opener, the Buccaneers locked Mayfield into a three-year extension worth $55 million per year in average annual value, matching Joe Burrow’s deal. The contract doesn’t kick in until 2027, and the 2029 season functions as a team option year, giving Tampa Bay flexibility.

The belief is the deal will only fuel Mayfield even more than before heading into Week 1 and beyond.

That all starts this week against the Bengals, where a retooled defense could pose some problems. It all starts up front with the additions of Dexter Lawrence, Boye Mafe, and Jonathan Allen. Those three players bring a new dimension to the Bengals’ front seven, where fourth-year pass rusher Myles Murphy is coming into his own, as well.

The secondary is in much better shape than recent seasons, too. D.J. Turner is emerging as one of the best corners in the game and Dax Hill is starting to settle in on the opposite side of things.

Bryan Cook, another big free agent addition, is looking to bring more physicality to the back end and in the box and Jordan Battle’s ballhawking ability rounds out the secondary. Overall, it’s easy to see why this defense can give Mayfield and Co. some problems.

On the flip side, the Buccaneers offense is mostly healthy, sans Jalen McMillan and Sean Tucker’s doubtful statuses. Either way, both units are in a good spot health-wise and are looking to make life difficult for the other side. 

Zac Robinson’s offense brings questions in the run game

Tampa Bay turned to new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson after the Josh Grizzard experiment failed in 2025. Robinson, who Mayfield championed from their shared time with the Los Angeles Rams, shares philosophical tendencies with Liam Coen, whose 2024 unit produced the best offense in Buccaneers franchise history.

The biggest question surrounding Robinson’s offense centers on his zone-heavy rushing concepts. The main reason for questioning the idea is because Coen started the 2024 season running more zone than gap for the first 10 weeks, and the rushing attack was middling. After the Week 11 bye, Cohen switched to a heavier gap scheme approach, and the Buccaneers had the No. 1 rushing attack in the NFL by nearly every metric over the final seven games of the season.

The cast of characters is almost identical, as well. Bucky Irving, Sean Tucker, and all five offensive linemen return, with Kenneth Gainwell replacing Rachaad White. It’s fair to question what Robinson sees in this group that Coen didn’t when it comes to making zone concepts work consistently.

Rueben Bain Jr. headlines a deep defensive front vs. a cohesive Bengals offensive line

The Buccaneers’ first-round pick has been everything Tampa Bay hoped for throughout the offseason, training camp, and preseason. The Bain selection was the inflection point of the Buccaneers’ entire offseason and it’s easy to see why.

Bain won’t be working alone, either. Calijah Kancey, Vita Vea, and A’Shawn Robinson all bring separate skill sets that complement each other. The matchup between Bain and Bengals right tackle Amarius Mims, and even left tackle Orlandon Brown Jr., figures to be one of the premier individual battles of Week 1.

It’s not just those guys, either. Yaya Diaby is a solid pass rusher and then the depth behind he and Bain is legitimate, as well. Al-Quadin Muhammad, Anthony Nelson, and David Walker are all viable outside pass rushers that can make life tough for Burrow and Co.

We’re all used to the Bengals offensive line being the Achilles heel of the offense, but that may not be the case in 2026. All five starters return from last year and they have a good shot at taking a step forward to where they become an above-average unit and that’s a scary thought when considering the players at the Bengals’ skill positions.

Regardless, the unit will certainly be tested against a very talented and deep Buccaneers front.

The secondary is Tampa Bay’s Achilles heel and interior offensive line has to show up

The biggest concern for Sunday comes down to the Buccaneers’ secondary matching up against Chase and Higgins. Chase is arguably the best receiver in the NFL, but is undoubtedly the best after the catch.  Chase can turn even the shortest completions into chunk plays that can force Tampa Bay out of its preferred man-coverage looks.

If you get this Bucs team in a zone-heavy defense at some point during the game, then there are going to be miscommunications, there are going to be busted coverages. That’s just something that has come with Todd Bowles’ defense ever since he’s been here in 2019.

There’s also concerns with the personnel: Zyon McCollum is coming off one of the worst years of his career, Benjamin Morrison’s health/reliability are major question marks, and Jacob Parrish has to show he can take a step forward in Year 2 while taking on a lot more responsibility when it comes to his role on defense. He’s expected to play both inside and outside at a high clip, which can easily lead to both positive and negative developments.

At the same time, Antoine Winfield Jr. and Tykee Smith form one of the league’s best safety duos and both are very good at forcing turnovers/mistakes. So that certainly helps with the test that is the Bengals offense, mainly the passing attack.

With all that being said, a strong performance from the Buccaneers’ front seven can help mitigate a lot of the secondary concerns.

On offense, the interior offensive line presents another potential vulnerability. Cody Mauch is returning from a serious injury, Graham Barton regressed in 2025, and Ben Bredeson, while solid, is a high-floor, low-ceiling player. Against a Bengals front anchored by Lawrence and Allen, that interior could get pushed around.

If it does, that’ll make life tougher for Mayfield and the passing attack, as well as the inside running game.

It’s a new year and literally everything is fresh and unknown, but these pressure points will easily make the difference when it comes to who wins and loses on Sunday.