Baker Mayfield is a good quarterback – there’s no debating that. But like any other signal caller in the NFL, he has his weaknesses.

Turnovers have been discussed ad nauseam, and rightfully so. Mayfield is one of the worst quarterbacks when it comes to fumbling the ball, with around 35 fumbles since 2023. His 37 interceptions are the second-most in the NFL during that span, too.

But there’s another issue that’s been plaguing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback’s game over the last few years, and it’s finally time to have the discussion in full force.

And that’s Mayfield’s inability to hit the deep ball when it comes time to make a big explosive play in the passing game. 

NextGenStats paint a troubling picture for Mayfield’s deep throws

Per NextGenStats, Mayfield has woefully underperformed when it comes to trying to hit passes of 20-plus air yards downfield.

In 2023 and 2024, he finished 29th in completion percentage over expected. He improved in 2025, but only four spots to 25th. He’s never finished higher than 16th in EPA per dropback on those throws, and two of those three years (2023 and 2024, respectively) featured a 26th and 27th place finish.

The most concerning aspect of all this is Mayfield has always finished in the bottom-12 of pressure rate on deep throws, meaning he is not pressured a whole lot on these attempts. In 2023, he was pressured on 38.2% of deep throws (18th). In 2024, he was pressured on 32.6% of deep throws (28th). Last year, he was pressured on just 25.5% of deep throws (30th).

So it’s not like Mayfield is running all over the place trying to get away from defenders and launching balls downfield in hopes somebody will make a play. The plays are working in terms of pass protection and receivers getting open. Mayfield just isn’t hitting his guys, and the awful CPOE numbers reflect that.

The 2025 split is both a sign of hope and worry

I went back to Weeks 1-8 of 2025, when Mayfield was playing at an MVP level, to see what exactly his deep balls looked like at that point and they were surprisingly effective.

Per Pro Football Focus, Mayfield completed 40% of passes that went 20-plus air yards downfield for 432 yards, six touchdowns, and zero interceptions. About 15% of his throws were of the 20-plus air yard variety.

Weeks 10-18 told a different story, however, as Mayfield completed only 38.5% of those passes for 282 yards, two touchdowns, and three interceptions on 20-plus air yard throws.

There’s context behind that, as Mayfield dealt with injuries over the back half of the season. Emeka Egbuka fell off, Mike Evans was hurt, and the Buccaneers offensive line dealt with injuries, too. So 2025 was an up-and-down year. But the overall totality, one half being good, one half being bad, still lends a lot of credence to Mayfield’s inconsistencies as a deep ball thrower.

This popped up again against the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. Sure, Mayfield only had one attempt of over 20-plus air yards, and it came in the first quarter to Egbuka. But Mayfield underthrew the ball. It was not a good pass. Egbuka was wide open down the sideline, and it’s hard to think that if Joe Burrow would’ve missed that throw if he were in a similar position.

Can this be fixed?

Does Baker Mayfield have a deep ball problem? I think right now, all signs point to yes. This might be why Liam Coen didn’t really attempt a whole lot of deep balls during his time as offensive coordinator in 2024. Especially after seeing the lack of success Mayfield had throwing the second-most 20-plus air yard attempts in 2023.

Maybe he recognized, whether in practice or on tape, that Mayfield just isn’t the kind of guy you can rely on to hit explosive plays downfield in the passing attack.

That’s an issue for the Buccaneers offense. We saw against Cincinnati just how ineffective the unit was in totality when it came to running screens and short pass plays close to the line of scrimmage, and so on, because the Bengals’ pass rush put them in so many of those positions.

At the same time, that’s just not how you want to live. You can’t hope to dink and dunk on guys anymore in today’s NFL. You have to be an explosive offense that generates points and yards in exceptional fashion when it comes to hitting chunk plays.

Is this something that can be rectified? I’m not entirely sure. A lot of deep ball placement is a skill, and if a quarterback doesn’t have it, especially at this point in Mayfield’s career, it’s just not going to develop overnight. But there are ways for offensive coordinator Zach Robinson to scheme up deep throws that make sense. Maybe it’s not just a straight-up go route like we saw to Egbuka. Maybe it’s a deep dig that allows Mayfield to operate over the middle of the field and make an easier throw.

Whatever the answer is, Tampa Bay needs to figure this out. If the Buccaneers can’t hit explosives in the passing game, this offense is going to have consistency issues scoring points in 2026 and beyond — and that matters even more now that Mayfield is locked in on a three-year, $165 million extension.