What if joint practice results could predict NFL win total results? That question sits at the center of a fascinating data set that has real implications for the Tennessee Titans heading into the final stretch of training camp.

Ryan Paganetti, a former NFL analytics and strategy coach with the Raiders, Jaguars, and Eagles, broke down the connection between joint practice performance and regular season outcomes on his YouTube channel with New Orleans Saints beat writer Nick Underhill. The data he presented should grab the attention of every Titans fan watching this team prepare for the 2026 season.

NFL strategist data on joint practice winners and losers

Here is Ryan Paganetti on the connection of joint practice results and success or lack thereof in the actual season itself.

“Essentially, in the event that the team that was favored lost joint practice, major, major red flag, he began. “So the team that was expected to win doesn’t win, like very poor performance, are 7-12 against their season win total. And in particular, they were horrendous in the first half of the year, essentially covering 45% of their games. And I think that’s when you sort of feel we’re Vegas has things like mispriced the most is in the early parts of the season. And then they sort of catch up and they sort of calibrate based off of like, okay, what is this team actually putting out there?”

“By the same idea that when the team that was the underdog ended up being the clear winner (of the practice), that was a major signal that that team was actually going to outperform that year. So there were 19 cases of that. Those teams went 13-6 against their team win total for the season. They averaged to clear their win total by over 1 win per game. And in particular, in the first 4 weeks, those teams were 45-28 and 3 against the spread, which is over 61.6%, which really makes you think, okay, that’s where Vegas was missing on these teams the most.”

“It usually correlates with the teams that have invested in the offensive and defensive lines and they have some talent up front or they have improved coaching and whatnot. I think that that’s a really, really interesting world. And to me, it’s really kind of a positive signal in general that there really is something to these joint practices. Like, it’s the closest thing you’re going to get to a real game.”

That’s a lot to digest, but the takeaway is clear. When an underdog wins a joint practice, those teams went 13-6 against clearing their season win total. They cleared that projected wins by more than a full game on average. And in the first four weeks, those teams covered at a 61.6% clip, suggesting Vegas had them mispriced early.

What does this mean for the Titans?

The Titans are 1-1 in joint practices this training camp, both times going up against superior rosters. They lost to the 49ers. They beat the Seahawks. Now they have a rubber match against the Bears, another team projected to be better than Tennessee.

If the Titans win that joint practice to finish 2-1 against three better teams, they fall squarely into Paganetti’s “underdog winner” category. That means a 68% chance of beating their season win total. Tennessee’s win total as of Monday sat at 6.5 (over/under). So we’re talking about a 68% chance of winning 8 games if they definitively beat Chicago.

Hard Knocks told you the wrong story about the Titans-Seahawks practice

This week’s Hard Knocks episode covered the Titans-Seahawks joint practice, and the edit was . . . generous to Seattle. 

The easiest way to see through it is when wide receiver Montorio Foster Jr. cramped up. HBO showed it happening early in practice when it actually happened on the second-to-last play of the real practice. 

Jake Bobo’s injury, which appeared at the end of the Hard Knocks sequence, happened at the very beginning of the actual session. They manipulated the timeline to craft a narrative.

The reality on the ground told a different story. The Titans defense made stops and forced turnovers. The Titans offense scored more touchdowns than Seattle’s offense in the scrimmage settings. The Titans offensive line was objectively better across the entire two-hour practice than the Seahawks defensive front. Flip it, and Tennessee’s defensive front won more often than Seattle’s offensive line. The Seahawks could not run the ball in that joint practice, then turned around and gashed Tennessee for big rushing yards (including a touchdown) in the preseason game. That contrast is exactly the point.

Sam Darnold, the Seahawks quarterback, said it himself on the Titans practice field after Seattle got beat in that joint practice, talking to Seahawks GM John Schneider about how he loves “these things”, and that joint practices are the closest thing to an actual real football game.

Darnold said during the Saturday night broadcast that the Seahawks backups game-planned for the preseason game. The Titans did not game plan on offense or defense. Tennessee’s starters were going through the motions. Seattle’s backups were fighting for roster spots. Completely different levels of strain.

Why joint practices matter more than preseason games

The reasons are obvious when you line them up. Players and coaches say out loud they take joint practices more seriously than preseason games. The ones play the ones instead of ones against twos. The starters get two hours of work instead of three series. Teams run their real offenses and defenses instead of the shell base packages they openly admit to using in preseason games. There are scuffles, trash talk, intensity, and real competitiveness that simply does not show up on a preseason Saturday night.

If you hear all of that and still care more about what you see on your TV screen just because it’s on your TV screen, I think you’re misguided. The data backs it up, the players back it up, and the results back it up. Now we wait to see if the Titans can take care of business against the Bears and land on the right side of that 68%.