WR expert explains what makes Carnell Tate a perfect Titans fit to turn Cam Ward’s statistical weakness into a strength
Deep passing is just as much a WR stat as it is a QB stat. That is more or less the thesis statement of this article. We spent embarrassingly little time in the lead-up to the draft discussing Carnell Tate to the Titans because we basically ruled him out as an option. But now that […]
Deep passing is just as much a WR stat as it is a QB stat.
That is more or less the thesis statement of this article. We spent embarrassingly little time in the lead-up to the draft discussing Carnell Tate to the Titans because we basically ruled him out as an option. But now that he’s here, let’s look at one big reason why Mike Borgonzi wanted him with some help from my friend Matt Harmon.
Carnell Tate can unlock a weakness in Ward’s game
Matt Harmon works for Yahoo Sports, but he may be best known as the creator of Reception Perception. This is, for my money, the preeminent destination for intelligent WR charting and evaluation in NFL media today. Matt is the man.
Here’s a recent quote from him on the Reception Perception Podcast that illustrates the point I’d like to make. On the topic of Tate the Titan:
“He just really fits an offense that I do think, under Brian Daboll and with Cam Ward at quarterback, is going to be very spread and shred. I think Cam Ward wants to push the ball down the field. Cam Ward wants to work kind of outside the numbers. So you get him a boundary receiver, number one, somebody who is a top, top tier man coverage route runner on the outside. We’re going to be able to take those shots.”
I wrote at length this past winter about Ward’s deep passing profile, which is a good deal shakier than a lot of fans seem to think it is! It wasn’t a big strong suit of his in college, and as a rookie that didn’t change. On a more granular level, he’s actually pretty strong pushing the ball to the deep third between the numbers. But outside the numbers, where a lot of NFL deep shots take place, he really struggles statistically.
“It’s ok to point out that his deep passing has been below-average as a rookie,” I wrote in December. “It’s one thing for it to not be a strength, and another for it to be an active weakness. It’s fair to expect him to develop to the point where he’s merely fine at it. That can come with additional time on task (such as your first real NFL offseason). It will be high on his to-do list.”
Carnell Tate can help fix this.
Back to our thesis: Deep passing is just as much a WR stat as it is a QB stat. This is a fundamental truth of the modern NFL passing game in my opinion. Of course, the receiver is exactly one-half of the connection in every single pass we see made. So what makes deep passing unique?
Because on passes that really push the deep third (20+ yards downfield), this is where receivers have the most impact on the completion. Ball tracking, route tempo, spacial awareness, contested catch ability, and your top gear matter the most in this phase of the WR game. Put simply, the QB just needs to hang the ball out there in a place that a good deep ball receiver can get to it. What happens after that is where downfield receivers make their bones.
Matt Harmon continued in that podcast clip to highlight where Tate shines in his charting:
“And you look at Carnell Tate’s success rate by route chart, just under 69% success rate on nine routes, 80% on the post, 71.4% on the corners. We’re going to be ripping those throws down the field. And even better than that, 84% success rate on curls, which was his highest run route in his reception perception sample, because he knows how to push, push, push vertically, and then bring it back, like stop down on the stop routes, on the curls, the deeper hooks and present a really reliable target there.”
Ward is going to improve as a downfield passer. Carnell Tate is going to help him. And that’s surely a part of the reason why Mike Borgonzi liked the idea of pairing them up.