SEC tiebreaker scenarios: Texas, Texas A&M football have clear paths to Atlanta but what about Alabama and Georgia?
If both teams win Saturday, then Texas vs. Texas A&M winner on Nov. 30 advances to Atlanta
With two regular season games left, the SEC league office would love to junk its complicated tiebreaker rules and have two clear-cut participants in the championship game.
No such luck, it seems. At least not yet.
Here’s what we know: Texas and Texas A&M control their own destiny. Everyone else needs to figure out the tiebreaker rules. Alabama will be double and triple checking the results, too.
The Longhorns (9-1) and Aggies (8-2) both have matching 5-1 league records, so they’re in the best shape. They’re also on a collision course on Nov. 30 for what would essentially be a SEC championship semifinal matchup.
Both teams have one more hurdle this week first. Texas hosts Kentucky (4-6) while A&M travels to Auburn (4-6). Both the Horns and Aggies will be favored in their respective games.
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So clearly Texas or A&M will pick up another conference loss. Based on the tiebreaker rules, it appears the loser will fall completely out of the title picture.
As of now, it appears the Texas-A&M winner and Alabama (8-2, 4-2 SEC) have the inside track to Atlanta, as best we can tell.
The first tiebreaker is head-to-head. Did one team beat the other? That’s easy.
The second tiebreaker is a team’s record against all common conference opponents. The third tiebreaker is a team’s record against the highest placed common conference opponents in the standings. There are two more tiebreaker steps before the league resorts to a “random draw.”
What complicates the predictions is the potential for upsets. Let’s say Auburn win the Iron Bowl. In that case, Georgia would leap to the front of the tiebreaker line and advance to the SEC title game.
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Georgia coach Kirby Smart is busy hammering the College Football Playoff selection committee for his team’s current standing. Georgia is ranked 12th but the Dawgs would be effectively shutout of the 12-team bracket based on how the seedings workout. Right now, Georgia is the first team out.
“I don’t know what they’re looking for. I really don’t,” Smart said after a 31-17 win over Tennessee. “I wish they could really define the criteria. I wish they could do the eyeball test where they come down here and look at the people we're playing against and look at them.
You can't see that stuff on a TV.”
The next two weeks will be wild, for sure. But if you’re a Texas fan, keep your eyes on the prize. Two more wins, and the Horns are headed to Atlanta.
