Through four games in this Denver Nuggets and Portland Trailblazers series, defense has been optional, and the offenses have been on fire. Game four was the lone exception but that game had a weird feel to it. The Trailblazers had their normal offensive dominant game, but Nikola Jokic went cold from the floor. Expect a different result for the Nuggets now that the series moves back to Denver.

The Pick: Nuggets/Trailblazers Over 225.5 (-112)

The Why: Nuggets Shooting 

Like I said, game four was weird. That was the fifth game in a row that these two teams have played, and it was the lone game that went under. The reason that happened was because Denver shot atrociously from the field and behind the arc. They shot 34% from the field and 29% from three that game. They rank fourth in the league in FG% and seventh in 3P%. Obviously, the last game was unlike the Nuggets.

It didn’t come down to the Trailblazers playing defense because they haven’t done that all year. Portland ranked 23rd in the NBA in scoring defense. It had everything to do with the Nuggets shooting very poorly, including likely MVP winner, Nikola Jokic. The Joker had a poor night on offense shooting 39% from the field and only scoring 16 points. In this series vs Portland, Jokic has shot 54% and averaged 31 PPG. He has to get going for the Nuggets to win this must-win game. Being back at home, I expect Jokic to get back to his dominant ways and meet his series averages. Also, I would say Michael Porter Jr. will shoot the ball more than three times.

For the Portland Trailblazers, the change of venue will not play a factor in their shooting performance. Through seven games vs the Nuggets this season they have averaged 115 PPG. I think they at least hit their average tonight. Last game Damian Lillard only scored 10 points and shot 10%, but he never had to get going. He’ll have a typical Damian Lillard type performance tonight.

All in all, Over 225.5 is our AtoZ Pick of The Day. This game has a shootout written all over it. With the Nuggets back on their home floor, I expect a much better offensive showing. The Nuggets will come out with a sense of urgency and set a pace that the Trailblazers will match. The defense should be optional in this and that's great for us. Don't worry about what happened last game. Take the over.

Trends We’re Betting On

Over has hit in 4 of the last 5 games for each team

Over has hit in 4 of the last 5 games these teams have played in Denver

Over has hit in 4 of the last 5 Nuggets home games

Over is 10-1 in the last 11 games combined on Tuesday

Featured Image via Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports