Despite efforts to improve the offense around Justin Fields, the Chicago Bears haven't seen significant improvement from the third-year quarterback. Through four weeks, which includes a prolific passing performance against the Denver Broncos, he is 26th among 34 quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE composite, a metric that combines offensive efficiency and ability to complete passes, and 23rd in success rate.

It's fair to argue if Fields himself owns the blame, or if and how much it's possible to share it with the personnel, offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, head coach Matt Eberflus, general manager Ryan Poles, and the entire organization. But the fact is that, right now, the Bears are 0-4 and own the first two picks of next year's draft — their own and the Carolina Panthers' first-rounder. If things keep going this way, the most likely scenario is that the Bears will draft a new quarterback in 2024 — Caleb Williams and Drake Maye are the favorites to be early picks.

And if this is the Bears' path moving forward, what could they contractually do with Fields? There are multiple options, depending on what Poles and the management decide to do.

Trade him now

As a former top draft pick, Fields has a fully-guaranteed contract. So cutting him is not a realistic option anyway. If the Bears want to move on as soon as possible, they could trade him before the trade deadline — on the Tuesday after Week 8. If it happens between now and then, the Bears would eat around $ 4.5 million in dead money (it's less the sooner the trade is executed, as Fields earns $66k per week in base salary) and $2.771 million in 2024. The new team would absorb around $660 k in 2024 (if done right at the deadline, or $66k more each week) and $3.23 million in 2024. Moreover, the acquiring team would have the possibility to exercise Fields' fifth-year option for 2025 — a fully-guaranteed option of over $20 million, something highly unlikely at the moment.

Trade him in the offseason

If the Bears decide to keep Fields through this season and move on later, when they will be sure about their draft capital, the financial situation doesn't change much. They wouldn't open any cap space in 2023, but otherwise it's the same scenario. Chicago would have $2.771 million in dead money for 2024 and nothing beyond that. The new team would absorb $3.23 million next year. The fifth-year option would be determined by when the trade is executed — it should be exercised or not by May, right after the draft. Presumably, the Bears would want to finalize the deal before the draft to have immediate extra capital, so the acquiring team would be responsible for exercising the option or not.

Keep him

There's still a chance that the Bears, for whatever reason, choose to keep Fields — they may have a run until the end of the season and lose the top picks, or maybe they decide he is good enough, so a draft trade down is the right move. Anyway, keeping Fields is financially easy through 2024. This year, his cap hit is $5.146 million. The number next year is $6.004 million. However, Chicago would have to make the fifth-year option decision in the offseason — they could decline it, like the New York Giants did with Daniel Jones, thinking about a potential extension later on, or agree to a short-term extension like the Green Bay Packers did with Jordan Love, or exercise it like the Cleveland Browns did with Baker Mayfield.

There are still four weeks before the trade deadline and 13 games before the end of the season for the Chicago Bears. It's more than enough time to analyze what the future holds, and if Justin Fields will be a part of it. Either way, they are still in a pretty good spot no matter what happens.

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