The head coaching market is always in flux. And now, six weeks into the 2023 season, there are already coaches with their jobs at risk. Last week, we wrote a piece about potential candidates for those jobs next year. Now, we write about jobs that may become open soon.

Hot seat

Matt Eberflus, Chicago Bears

The Bears have won just 4 of 23 games since Eberflus took over last year. The team has one of the worst defenses in football and has had several off-the-field issues — Chase Claypool's situation and defensive coordinator Alan Williams resignation are examples. That sounds especially bad for a defensive-minded coach hired to be a SEO-type. The Bears will probably have two top draft picks next year, and there's a chance the franchise wants to start over to adjust a timeline for the new quarterback if they move on from Justin Fields.

Frank Reich, Carolina Panthers

The Panthers made a bold move trading their 2024 first-rounder, two second-rounders, and top receiver DJ Moore to get Bryce Young. That's how important the new quarterback is for this franchise. So far, he is 24th out of 33 qualified quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE composite, while second overall pick CJ Stroud is 16th. And the Panthers are winless, so their pick would be the first overall next year. The offense lacks talented receivers and has no juice. Things got to a point where Reich mentioned meetings with owner David Tepper, which he classified as "not fun".

Brandon Staley, Los Angeles Chargers

Staley came to the Chargers as a defensive mastermind after a historic season as the Los Angeles Rams DC in 2020. Since he took over, the team is 25th in EPA/play and success rate on defense — and 30th against the run, which has been an extreme issue. The offense has been better under offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, but that doesn't give Staley much more security.

Ron Rivera, Washington Commanders

Since Rivera became the Commanders head coach in 2020, the team haven't had any winning seasons. Even when the team reached the playoffs, it was with a 7-9 record by winning a weak NFC East. The Commanders are average again this season, and new ownership might want something different moving forward.

Josh McDaniels, Las Vegas Raiders

Two consecutive wins over the Green Bay Packers and New England Patriots gave McDaniels some breathing room, but his job is still under intense scrutiny. It's not a rebuild, but they are not a real contender either. The lack of a clear plan is a big issue for the team's management.

Dennis Allen, New Orleans Saints

The Saints made a series of all-in moves trying to keep competitive after Drew Brees' retirement. Many of those backfired, as the trade up in the 2022 draft that cost the team a top 10 pick in 2023 and a second-rounder in 2024. The team is still decent, but it's not a real contender and is stuck in mediocrity. Allen is a great defensive mind, but his job as a head coach has shown a limited ceiling — and the previous experience with the Raiders hadn't been any better.

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Warm seat

Bill Belichick, New England Patriots

It's unlikely that the Patriots would fire Belichick, but maybe they could move him to an advisory role or incentivize a retirement. The Patriots haven't been the same since Tom Brady's departure, which was to be expected, but everything is worse this year. The team is 1-5, and the only win was a 15-10 victory over an Aaron Rodgers-less New York Jets. And there's an aggravating factor: Belichick is also the general manager, and the lack of offensive talent is evident, including at quarterback, where Mac Jones has been awful.

Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers

It's hard to part ways with a coach when 10 to 12 teams would immediately jump to hire him, so I wouldn't even put Tomlin on this list. But The Athletic's Steelers beat writer Mark Kaboly said that people in Pittsburgh are eager for changes, and Tomlin's willingness to keep offensive coordinator Matt Canada is putting a target on the head coach's back. It's still an unlikely scenario, but the seat is starting to get uncomfortably warm.

Mike McCarthy, Dallas Cowboys

It's crazy to think that a coach with two consecutive 12-win seasons may be under job risk, but that's how things work for McCarthy since he was with the Packers. When things go great, it's somebody else's merit. When everything's bad, it's his fault. The Cowboys are 10th in EPA/play, the same rank they had with Kellen Moore last year, but the pressure over the coach is significant. If they don't win a playoff game, Jerry Jones may hunt for changes.

25 potential NFL head coaches for 2024

There are several good names to keep in mind