Louisville faces off against Ole Miss in Nashville, Tennessee, in one of the more compelling Week 1 college football matchups on the schedule, and I think this game could be a lot more competitive than people expect.

If you’ve been following my work, you know I’m a big fan of Louisville and what Louisville head coach Jeff Brohm has built there. But the question for the Cardinals heading into this one is as basic as it gets: can quarterback Lincoln Kienholz, the Ohio State transfer, run this offense at a high enough level to keep Louisville in the fight?

The quarterback question looms large for Louisville to match up against Ole Miss’ offense

Listening to fall camp reports, it seems like Kienholz has struggled a bit in his transition to Louisville’s system. Now, on the flip side, Ole Miss’s defense has had its own rough stretches during fall camp, so there could be a rocky start on both sides of the football. That’s the window Louisville needs to exploit.

But, then you do the inverse and look at what Ole Miss brings offensively. Trinidad Chambliss and Kewan Lacy are on the Sphere in Las Vegas. Ole Miss is pumping money into a Heisman campaign for either of those players. And I think Deuce Alexander is a phenomenal talent at wide receiver on top of all that. The Rebels’ offensive firepower is legitimate, and that creates a very specific problem for Louisville to try and keep up with.

Louisville’s path to an upset is narrow, but there’s a clear path to pull it off

So, the question for the Cardinals is how quickly they can contain the Ole Miss offense and get their own side up to speed so this stays competitive. Because if you allow those first two drives to be touchdowns for Ole Miss while you’re still trying to figure things out, you’re dead in the water.

Lucky for Louisville, I think they’re well equipped to squeeze this game and not let it become a back-and-forth marathon. That matters, because Ole Miss wins a shootout 10 times out of 10 in this one. The Rebels have two really good running backs, and Kienholz can use his legs to extend plays. Louisville has to keep this ugly and close to pull this off.

And originally, I wanted this to be my big upset pick. We’ve seen Brohm punch above his weight class before. I think of the Miami game last year. It’s part of his MO. But even with that in mind, I’m trusting Ole Miss.

Ole Miss has too much talent for Louisville to upset the Rebels in Week 1

My gut is telling me to go with Louisville, and I’ll be honest about that. But I’m trusting Ole Miss because they have the best quarterback in the entire country, one of the best running backs in the entire country, and a supporting cast that’s really good across the board.

Do I have questions about what this Rebels team could become later in the year? Absolutely. I definitely think they do take that stumble at some point this season. But it’s not going to be in Week 1.

I’m going with Ole Miss even though it’s basic. And if Brohm pulls the upset? I’ll tip my cap, because that would mean he truly does have some magic up his sleeve.