After what we saw against New Mexico State, somehow, some way, this is the make-or-break point for Florida State’s season looking ahead to the team’s Week 1 matchup.

SMU travels to Tallahassee for its first game of the year to face off against the Seminoles, and the ACC matchup carries far more weight for one side than the other.

Florida State looked undisciplined, the offensive line looked shaky, the defensive line wasn’t creating pressure, and it may just end up being a season where you’re waiting for that notification of Mike Norvell being fired. Or maybe Florida State is able to knock off one of the best teams in the ACC.

SMU’s quarterback edge could be a decisive factor in Monday’s game

Kevin Jennings returns at quarterback for the Mustangs, and he’s one of my favorite players in the entire conference. You pair him with Rhett Lashley, one of the best coaches in the game, and SMU has a clear advantage at the top of the roster.

Now, you may look at the line sitting at 2.5 and think SMU is going to dominate this game. And while I think SMU wins, I do think early on this is going to be a competitive matchup.

I think Kevin Jennings, by the time we get to the second half though, takes over this game. If you really want to try to speed him up, you’ve got to get pressure, you’ve got to create things, and the Seminoles weren’t able to do that against the New Mexico State offensive line. I don’t think they’re going to be able to do it against this one.

Florida State also could not get off the field on third-down last week and had more than a few communication issues in the secondary, something Jennings can use to pick this defense apart if it’s not fixed.

Florida State’s slim path to an upset

If you’re an optimistic Florida State fan, maybe you can look at it like this: the Seminoles can run the football because they did against New Mexico State, SMU’s defensive line has changed, and maybe Florida State’s defense can squeeze the game and force Kevin Jennings into some uncomfortable spots. He was a little banged up in fall camp, and that’s the path to a win.

And in most cases, a team that played in Week 0 should look a little bit better in Week 1 and make adjustments. But that’s for a competent coaching staff. That’s for a good team. We know what Florida State is. They’re not good.

SMU is changing a ton too, more specifically with its defensive line, and will be a wild card spot to watch in this one. The Mustangs are getting a complete overhaul at the position, which was the strength of the defense last year on a unit that was pretty average to below average overall. That transition matters in Week 1.

I’m still picking SMU to win this game. It’s going to be the most obvious pick that everyone goes with. I can see the path for an upset for Mike Norvell’s squad, but with that in mind, I’m trusting the good coach with the great quarterback to get the job done.