Vikings vs. Packers Preview: Kyler Murray’s debut and Brian Flores’ pass rush plan highlight keys to victory
If the Minnesota Vikings want to beat the Green Bay Packers on Sunday afternoon, it likely boils down to these elements.
The Minnesota Vikings open their 2025 season against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday afternoon, and the matchup presents several fascinating opportunities for Kevin O’Connell’s squad.
From Kyler Murray’s debut to the next evolution of Brian Flores’ defense, the Vikings have a lot of fascinating questions to answer. It’s similar on the other side of the ball, as the Packers are dealing with their own issues. Jonathan Gannon is going into his first game as defensive coordinator, and they won’t have either Micah Parsons or Josh Jacobs.
The Vikings are currently 1.5-point favorites to win on Sunday, and these are the keys to a Minnesota victory.
Kyler Murray has a good game
The first key is straightforward: Murray has to have a good game. What makes that “good game” so interesting is how many different forms it can take. The biggest thing for Murray is playing within the offense, and how O’Connell chooses to deploy him will be worth watching closely.
This Packers defense does not have a good edge presence outside of Parsons, who won’t be playing while recovering from the torn ACL he suffered in December. Without Parsons, the Packers’ edge defenders likely won’t hold up and set the edge nearly as well, creating opportunities for Murray to get outside, pick up rushing yards, and attack vertically. Their interior defensive linemen, while relatively solid with Devonte Wyatt and Javon Hargrave, are banged up, as they were limited due to knee injuries. That creates an interesting paradigm for the Vikings. In theory, the offensive line should be able to dominate.
O’Connell can also utilize Murray’s legs. He is the most athletic and fastest quarterback the Vikings have had under O’Connell. Will he dial up bootlegs? Will he incorporate RPOs and read-option concepts to get Murray on the move? Murray’s EPA per play in his last full season in 2024 doubled outside the pocket, from 0.08 to 0.16, and his explosive play rate did the same. When you consider Murray spent a significant amount of his NFL career in the Air Raid offense, he didn’t generate a ton of explosives because the design relied on moving the ball with short passes. He doesn’t have to do that in this offense. It’s going to be about attacking downfield, going vertical, and getting him outside the pocket. The more the defense has to think, the easier it will be for O’Connell to maximize Murray.
Feature Justin Jefferson early and often
Wide receiver Justin Jefferson did not have the greatest year in 2025. Some of that stemmed from drop issues, but a lot of it had to do with quarterback play. J.J. McCarthy throwing to Jefferson resulted in 28% of all targets being deemed uncatchable. Cut that number in half, and Jefferson probably has 8-10 more receptions, a much better season, and maybe a couple more touchdowns beyond his total of two.
O’Connell will want to remedy that right away. He knows Jefferson is the No. 1 player for the Vikings, and the top wide receiver in the NFL. The cornerback situation for Green Bay is not good. Brandon Cisse, their second-round pick, is their top cornerback. Outside of Javon Bullard, who is a good slot defender, the outside corners are a problem. That likely means the Packers will deploy two-high shells and roll coverage toward Jefferson.
When that happens, targets should open up for guys like Jauan Jennings, T.J. Hockenson, and Jordan Addison. If Green Bay has to roll All-Pro safety Xavier McKinney over to help on Jefferson, that in itself opens things up for everybody else.
Establish the run
Without Parsons, the Packers’ ability to stop the run is rough. Green Bay does have good linebackers in Zaire Franklin and Edgerrin Cooper, and both the safeties and Bullard in the slot are good tacklers. The Packers don’t have a true nose tackle who can be a stout presence in the middle, and that will make a big impact.
The preseason featured a lot of split zone, generic wide zone, and mid zone staples. Now, the question becomes how those staples morph and evolve. Motion has mattered significantly more with Frank Smith than it ever has under O’Connell. Will we see a lot of orbit motion, which Smith ran in Miami? More jet motion? O’Connell has loved using the sidestep motion out of trips into a 3×1 look in the past as well. All of those elements will matter because the Vikings want to design plays that look like both run and pass.
Brian Flores has to contain Jordan Love
On the defensive side, stopping Love is the priority. Per Fantasy Points data, Love was a 73rd-percentile thrower to the deep right (right of the hash marks, 20-plus yards downfield) in 2025. He ranked in the 96th percentile in the 10-to-20-yard range to the right side, including a 99th-percentile EPA per dropback at 1.105. That is Love’s sweet spot, which makes sense, as 16.7% of all his throws were out routes. Out routes to the right side in that 10-to-20-yard range will be a priority for Love if last season told us anything.
Love isn’t necessarily a runner. He’s a scrambler to throw, and that is where he has done the most damage to the Vikings. Flores has to keep Love in the pocket because he is so good at maneuvering and escaping to find receivers downfield. How Dallas Turner and Andrew Van Ginkel hold him within the pocket and whether Jalen Redmond can generate interior pressure will be critical factors. Harrison Smith’s return means communication with Josh Metellus, Byron Murphy Jr., and Isaiah Rodgers will be at an absolute premium, and that can maximize the pass rush’s impact.
