Lions vs. Bills Prediction Lab: Detroit has a path to the upset — but one thing could wreck it
Detroit can shorten the game with Jahmyr Gibbs and its run game, but Buffalo’s explosive passing attack presents exactly the kind of challenge the Lions struggled to contain in Week 1.
Detroit Lions fans, it’s Prediction Lab day. The Lions travel to Buffalo to take on the Bills on Thursday night, and this one has shootout written all over it. The Lions’ run game, time of possession, and explosive plays will determine whether Detroit can steal one on the road against Josh Allen and a Bills team opening its brand new stadium. Let’s break it down.
Where the Lions can win
It all starts with the run game. The Texans beat the Bills up on the ground Sunday, and there’s no reason Jahmyr Gibbs can’t do the same. But the bigger picture here is time of possession. The Lions defense showed real improvement with pressure in Week 1, but the Bills can generate explosives at will with Allen. Keep them off the field as much as you can, and you will win this game. It’s as simple as that.
Long drives, a steady ground attack, and letting Gibbs dink and dunk all day will make it hard for the Bills to get rolling. Buffalo put up 36 points in Week 1, but they also gave up 31 points, which is not a little bit. That’s exactly how much the Lions scored on Sunday. So get out there, win the time of possession battle, and get the ground game going early.
On the other side, watch out for Bills defensive end Greg Rousseau. He forced two fumbles against Houston. He’s no joke. He’s going to be coming after Jared Goff, so the Lions need to keep Goff upright and let him work. Get Amon-Ra St. Brown involved in the pass game. Maybe let’s see some explosives from Jameson Williams. No drops. But more than anything, get that run game going.
Where the Lions could get beat
Despite recording five sacks on Sunday, 26 pressures, and a time to pressure of 2.40 (a massive improvement from last season’s 2.92, which was one of the worst in the league), the Lions still allowed 410 passing yards. That number is a bit of an illusion because New Orleans couldn’t run the ball. Detroit wouldn’t allow it. So the Saints were forced into the air.
The Lions have an opportunity to stop James Cook and make Buffalo one-dimensional. But here’s the thing: the Bills go heavy on heavy personnel. They ran 12 and 13 personnel on 50% of their snaps against Houston. That is not a little bit. They’re going to utilize tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Jackson Hawes, and they’re going to lean on wide receiver DJ Moore, who had a big game. Moore and Kincaid combined for 230 yards against Houston.
The Bills are a confusing offense to go up against because they make it look like they’re lining up to run, and then they do a bunch of crazy stuff. They throw to the tight ends, they go to Moore, or Allen uses his feet and gets going. The Lions cannot fall into that trap. New Orleans did it a little bit on Sunday with their tight ends. Noah Fant got stuff done. Juwan Johnson got stuff done. Go back to last year: the Lions struggled with heavy personnel against Pittsburgh in their loss. They struggled against the Rams in their loss. Gotta watch that.
And of course, Allen completed five passes of at least 30 yards in Week 1. Can’t have it, because a Bills receiver put up six receptions of 20 yards or more on Sunday. You have to prevent these explosives from happening, because if they do, you’re going to lose. It’s as simple as that.
What decides this game
Every time the Lions and Bills have played each other since Thanksgiving 2022, the games have been explosive-filled. It’s always a game of who can generate the most big plays. I think this one is set up to be a shootout, and whoever gets the most plays of at least 20 or 30 yards, whether on the ground or through the air, wins this game. Detroit’s pass rush needs to show up. They cannot allow Allen to dictate the explosives, as he has in the last couple of meetings, where the Bills just happened to put up more big plays.
Prediction: Bills 34, Lions 31
I think at the end of the day it’s the Bills. I’ve got Buffalo winning 34-31. It’s going to be high-scoring. It’s going to be a shootout. I don’t think either team’s defense is going to come out of this thing looking great. No one is going to call this a defensive hard-fought battle. And honestly, is that even what you would want? You want what everybody else wants: a high-octane offensive shootout with big explosive plays.
There’s a lot going against the Lions here. I think they have some things to fix in the secondary, and I do believe they will clean those up. Maybe the Joey Porter trade is coming down the line, and I certainly feel like it has unbelievable potential of happening, like potential I’ve never thought a trade in Detroit could have. But right now, trying to fix that secondary after three days and getting back on track against a Bills team playing the home opener of their brand new stadium with a raucous crowd? That’s not easy to do.
The Bills are going to use everything they have: crowd noise, the ability to generate explosives, and the talent to edge it out. Maybe whoever has the ball last wins it, and it’s the Bills with a walk-off field goal. But if I’ve learned anything from covering this team for 13 years, it’s that Week 1 might be the biggest liar of all. Don’t always believe what happens in Week 1, because those teams very often come into Week 2 and look nothing like they did the week before. We’ll see what happens Thursday night.
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