Justin Jefferson’s (likely) return and containing Chris Olave highlight Vikings’ keys to victory vs. Saints
The Minnesota Vikings are one game away from going into the bye week at 5-0, and all that stands in their way is the New Orleans Saints.
The Minnesota Vikings are shooting for a 5-0 start when they face the New Orleans Saints on Sunday afternoon at the Superdome. Wide receiver Justin Jefferson will likely play in his home state of Louisiana in front of fans for the first time in the NFL, and Minnesota has a chance to carry a perfect record into the bye week.
Going into the matchup on Sunday, there are a multitude of interesting matchups to look at, especially with Jefferson likely returning.
A few keys will decide whether the Vikings get there.
Kyler Murray is building command of the offense
Quarterback Kyler Murray has been a major topic of discussion, and it’s not a surprise. The Vikings haven’t been good enough on offense, and the reasons go well beyond the quarterback. However, Murray has played significantly better over the last two weeks. He’s getting more comfortable in the system, and head coach Kevin O’Connell is getting more comfortable calling plays for him.
That chemistry showed up in the fourth quarter against the Miami Dolphins in Week 4. Murray went 13-of-14 for 120 yards in the period, posting the fourth-best EPA per play (0.588) and the 12th-best success rate (46.2%) among quarterbacks in the fourth quarter last week. He threaded the needle to Jordan Addison on an in-breaking route that looked like an RPO, then hit T.J. Hockenson on a beautiful seam route.
Hockenson going down short of the goal line on the final drive was by design. Minnesota called “Rolex,” one of its time-based calls that tells the ball carrier to get the first down and go to the ground. That choice resulted in three kneel-downs end the game, and there hasn’t been a fumbled exchange on a kneel-down since 1978, per Pro Football Reference. Winning is the priority, and Murray did plenty to win, finishing 27-of-37 for 245 yards along with a couple of key scrambles.
He still has to improve in a lot of areas. Even so, he’s finding more ways to create plays down the field, and the Saints present a great opportunity. New Orleans runs the most single-high coverage and the most Cover 3 in the NFL under defensive coordinator Brandon Staley. Staley had one great year calling a defense with Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey, but Kool-Aid McKinstry isn’t the same kind of cornerback, and there’s nobody close to Donald on the defensive line.
Expect plenty of seam concepts and attempts to isolate Jefferson one-on-one against McKinstry and Quincy Riley. Jefferson will be motivated playing in Louisiana, and this could be a breakout game for Murray and O’Connell before a bye week full of self-scouting.
Dallas Turner can bully the Saints’ tackles
On the other side of the football, outside linebacker Dallas Turner has been a monster. Brandon Thorn of the Trench Warfare Substack tracks a true stack rate, and Turner ranks third in the entire NFL. He has 5.5 sacks and is third in the NFL in pressures, per Pro Football Focus.
Von Miller said on a podcast over the summer that while everyone focuses on flashy pass rush moves, most of winning comes down to being bigger, stronger, and faster than the man across from you. That’s exactly what Turner has become. He has transformed his body into an NFL-caliber frame, he’s faster than nearly every edge rusher in the league, and he uses his power to attack leverage.
New Orleans will counter with Asim Richards and Taliese Fuaga, a former 14th overall pick. Fuaga is a good player, but is he elite? That’s debatable, and it’s especially important because Saints head coach Kellen Moore leaves his tackles on islands at a 70% rate, which means Turner should get plenty of true one-on-ones. Give him that, and he’s going to take advantage.
Pressure Tyler Shough and contain Chris Olave
The Saints’ offense starts with quarterback Tyler Shough, and it’s extremely pass-heavy. New Orleans throws 100% of the time on third- and fourth-and-long and ranks first in passing efficiency in those spots. It throws 8% above league average on first-and-10, 11% above on second-and-long, and 6.5% above on third-and-medium. Short yardage is the only area near average (37.1% against a league mark of 38.9%), and the Saints throw it 71% of the time in the red zone.
That lean should grow with Alvin Kamara possibly out with a back injury. Travis Etienne is also on injured reserve and won’t play.
What do the Vikings love to do? Blitz. With question marks on the New Orleans offensive line, defensive coordinator Brian Flores should be able to line everyone up on the line of scrimmage, bail out, and confuse Shough consistently. This could be a big day for Isaiah Rodgers, Byron Murphy Jr., and Blake Cashman, plus we might see one of Josh Metellus or Harrison Smith come away with an interception.
The one player Minnesota must worry about is Chris Olave. I was begging the Vikings to take him at 12th overall in the 2022 NFL Draft before he went one pick earlier. He’s a route-running savant with explosive ability, though he lacks much contact balance. If Olave gets rolling, he can win deep, which puts real pressure on Rodgers and Murphy to play well. Shough has shown a willingness to pepper Olave with targets, and he’s going to be the No. 1 target on Sunday.
Clean up the procedural penalties
Minnesota also has to fix its penalty issues. Since O’Connell took over in 2022, the Vikings rank fifth in total penalties and first in offensive penalties, while being the league’s most disciplined team on defense. That gap is stark.
Against the Dolphins, Minnesota committed six procedural penalties at home, including four false starts. The Vikings have the most home false starts in the NFL since the start of the 2024 season, playoffs included. That has to change and quickly.
This is a challenge the Vikings should be able to meet. If they do, they’ll head into the bye at 5-0 for the second time in three years.
