The Washington Commanders are not where anybody expected them to be. Commanders head coach Dan Quinn has a young franchise quarterback in Jayden Daniels and plays in a mediocre NFC East, and yet the heat on his job security is rising fast.

That was one of the biggest topics on the latest episode of 13 Personnel, where we ran through the next potential NFL firings now that former Indianapolis Colts GM Chris Ballard kicked things off. Quinn came up quickly, and the conversation did not paint a pretty picture of where things stand in Washington.

What the Commanders beat is saying about Dan Quinn

To get a better feel for the situation, I checked in with A to Z Sports’ own Sean Anderson, who covers the Commanders. I asked him for a heat check on Quinn’s job security as the head coach in Washington.

Anderson said it won’t be the 49ers game that does him in, barring another brutal coaching blunder. Of course, they have a bye week next week, so he’s likely safe for now.

If they finish with a losing record, it is definitely in a really bad situation. He said they have games versus the Eagles, Giants, Cardinals, Titans, Falcons, Vikings, Jags, and Cowboys, and Sean thinks that, in order for him to make himself safe, he’ll have to win the majority of that, which feels very unlikely at this point.

There are winnable games on that slate.

The Eagles are not playing well. The Giants are beatable, and the Cardinals are not a great team, even after their win over the Rams. The Titans are a very winnable game, and the Falcons could be too, depending on how Michael Penix Jr. is playing. The Vikings and Jaguars look like tougher draws, while the Cowboys could beat or lose to anybody on a given week.

Still, the thought of the Commanders winning the majority of those games is a tall order. If you ask me, that is the crux of the problem for Quinn.

The bigger issue is what Washington is building

My co-hosts Austin Stanley and Easton Freeze did not hold back on the state of the roster. The recent tie was a sore spot. Stanley went as far as saying the tie itself should be a fireable offense, and it is hard to argue the operation has looked good this season.

It has also created a strange picture in the division. The Giants now lead the NFC East at 3-2-1, and Washington’s lone win came against the Seattle Seahawks in a game where the defense still allowed 31 points. Even that one felt like it almost got away from them.

Freeze raised the question that sums up the whole situation: what is Washington building? Daniels is a dynamic player, and wide receiver Terry McLaurin is still on the roster, but the supporting cast is thin.

The Commanders took a big swing on the offensive line by adding Laremy Tunsil, though he has not been available. The rest of the roster leaves a lot to be desired.

Right now, it feels like the entire organization, from players to coaches to the front office, is Daniels or bust. That is an ugly place to be for a team that already hit on a young star quarterback. Freeze said firing Quinn if Washington does not win this division would be the first place he would start.

The catch is that the division is incredibly winnable. If the Commanders get hot and take the NFC East, the conversation gets a lot murkier.

Dan Quinn’s defense is the most damning part

Here’s the thing about Quinn.

Dan Quinn has not had the success in Washington that Nick Sirianni has had with the Eagles in Philadelphia. This offseason, the Commanders needed to bring in a legitimate offensive coordinator, and they had to settle for David Blough. I think that is a little damning on its own.

The most damning thing, though, is the defense. Quinn is supposed to be a defensive mastermind. Instead, the defense has been horrible, and it is the worst part of this team. Linebacker Sonny Styles has been a bright spot, but the rest of the unit has been bad.

That brings everything back to a simple question. What does Quinn do well if he cannot field a great defense? I don’t have a good answer for that, and I’m not sure the Commanders do either.

One thing is very clear: the bye week buys Quinn some time, and not much else. Freeze suggested the Commanders could win the goofiest season award in their own unique way. Whether Quinn survives it depends on what happens over that final stretch, and we will see how things play out.