Notre Dame has had a week to sit with its loss to BYU, and Saturday’s Halloween matchup with Navy presents an opportunity to get back on track in a big way.
The Midshipmen have built their identity around a difficult-to-defend option offense, but this is a game where Notre Dame’s talent advantage should eventually take over. I’m expecting the Irish to come out with a little extra urgency, make life difficult for Navy early, and turn this into a comfortable win.
The biggest storyline for me is CJ Carr against a Navy pass defense that has struggled to consistently get stops through the air. Notre Dame doesn’t need to reinvent its offense to win this game, but Carr has a chance to put together one of his better performances of the season.
If he gets comfortable early and starts connecting on downfield throws, Navy could have a difficult time keeping pace with the Irish offense. I also expect Notre Dame’s defense to set the tone by forcing an early turnover, giving Carr and the offense a short field and helping the Irish seize control before Navy can settle into its preferred style of play.
The Irish defense should make Navy uncomfortable
The other matchup I keep coming back to is Notre Dame’s defense against Navy’s option attack. The Midshipmen can make opponents miserable when they’re consistently moving the chains and controlling the clock, but mistakes have been a major problem this season.
Navy has committed 10 turnovers while forcing only four, and Notre Dame has been one of the nation’s best teams at taking the football away.
I think that difference shows up early. Marcus Freeman and defensive coordinator Chris Ash should have their group ready to attack Navy’s option game, and an early takeaway could force the Midshipmen to play from behind. That’s not where Navy wants to be.
Quarterback Jackson Gutierrez is dangerous as a runner, with 869 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns entering the matchup, so Notre Dame can’t afford to lose discipline or allow him to break loose on the perimeter. But if the Irish stay assignment-sound and make Navy earn every yard, they have the defensive talent to keep the Midshipmen in check.
CJ Carr bounces back in a big way
Carr’s performance against BYU wasn’t what Notre Dame needed.
He completed 27 of 49 passes for 261 yards without a passing touchdown in the 28-24 loss. The good news is that the Irish have a favorable matchup to help him get back on track. Navy’s pass defense has been among the nation’s bottom 20, and Carr has already thrown 16 touchdown passes this season.
With offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock calling the plays, I expect Notre Dame to take advantage of that weakness. Jordan Faison and Micah Gilbert have emerged as Carr’s top receiving options, combining for 880 receiving yards and six touchdowns entering this game. If Navy commits too many defenders to slowing down Notre Dame’s ground game, Carr should have opportunities to find his receivers downfield.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Carr throw multiple touchdowns and surpass 250 passing yards. A strong outing would be a welcome response to the BYU loss and give the Irish some momentum heading into their massive November 7 matchup against Miami.
Final prediction: Notre Dame 45, Navy 10
Navy’s offense is capable of making this game uncomfortable for a little while, especially if Gutierrez gets into a rhythm and the Midshipmen can sustain some long drives. But I don’t see them having enough answers on both sides of the ball to hang around for four quarters.
The early turnover is the turning point in my prediction. Notre Dame gets the short field, Carr takes advantage of Navy’s vulnerable secondary, and the Irish build a lead that forces the Midshipmen to move away from their preferred game script. From there, Notre Dame’s defense takes control while the offense continues to find the end zone.
Halloween should be a good day for the Irish. Carr gets back on track, the defense creates an early momentum swing, and Notre Dame heads into the Miami showdown with a convincing 45-10 victory.
