The 2027 NFL Draft quarterback class has been labeled weak, but an efficiency model built by A to Z Sports’ Travis May suggests a few signal callers are being overlooked. That includes Houston quarterback Conner Weigman, Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr, and Miami’s Darian Mensah, all of whom sit near the top of his 2027 quarterback rankings.

May, the college football and NFL draft managing editor and head of tech at A to Z Sports, joined the latest episode of Best Pod Available as part of our expert series. As the film guy on the show (and someone my co-host Joe DeLeone likes to say is scared of numbers), I wanted to understand exactly how this model works and who it is backing.

How Travis May’s quarterback model works

May acknowledged the tension in the film versus analytics debate. He said stats by themselves “can lie to you frequently,” and that’s why you build things “to try to have them lie less.”

His model looks at more than 12 years of draft classes and every season from every FBS quarterback. It weighs more than 20 production variables, including touchdown percentage, adjusted yards per attempt, passer rating, rushing yard market share, and sack avoidance. On top of that, it adjusts for strength of schedule and scheme.

The scheme piece stood out to me. May explained that heavy play-action and pre-snap motion have historically inflated quarterback profiles. An offense that runs play-action 10 to 15 percent of the time, roughly half of the FBS average, makes life harder on its quarterback than one using motion on more than 30 percent of snaps.

As someone who covers Notre Dame, I couldn’t help but ask him to send a memo to the program. Offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock should be CC’d.

Quarterbacks are sorted into green, yellow, orange, and red tiers. According to May, almost nobody from the bottom tier has ever hit in the NFL. Josh Allen is the lone outlier, with Jordan Love coming close if you squint.

Darian Mensah sits atop the 2027 class

It shouldn’t be a surprise to see Mensah at the top. He gets the ball out quickly, rarely misfires, and has tremendous touch. The margin between him and the No. 2 quarterback is wide.

Arm strength has been the knock, but May isn’t buying it as a liability. He pointed to Mensah’s trajectory from the best Group of Five quarterback at Tulane, to leading Duke to the ACC Championship Game, to playing even better at Miami. May called him “an extremely safe first-round prospect.”

“If anybody doesn’t think that Darian Mensah is a top 15 pick, if he finishes anywhere near what he’s been playing like this year, then I’m just going to have to tell you no, hard pass, you’re wrong, you are incorrect,” May said.

Is Conner Weigman the next Jaxson Dart?

Weigman, a former five-star recruit who began his career at Texas A&M, has been quietly excellent in two seasons at Houston. He ranks second in the model.

There are questions. This is Weigman’s fifth year, and May explained that breaking out that late carries less predictive signal than a breakout in a player’s first, second, or third season. Still, May believes Weigman has the traits and could end up being his Jaxson Dart of this cycle.

“I would not be surprised at all if he’s in consideration for early Day 2, top 40, top 50 type conversation, or even like a late first swing that surprises everybody that wasn’t paying attention to this kind of stuff,” May explained.

That would be quite a jump for a quarterback barely discussed outside of A to Z Sports’ own mock drafts.

Where CJ Carr and the rest of the top tier stand

Carr ranks third, and May made it clear he is ready to defend the Notre Dame quarterback.

“If people have questions on Carr’s traits too, I’m going to push back on that hard depending on how things play out this year,” May said.

USC’s Jayden Maiava rounds out the top four, but he isn’t in the green tier. May won’t “completely green flag” Maiava because of his lack of mobility. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State’s Drew Mestemaker is gaining on the top group of Mensah, Weigman, and Carr, and a couple more strong games could push him there.

If the model holds, May believes “the first round will be the most chalky I think I’ve ever seen from a modeling standpoint.”

May updates his rankings weekly on X at @FF_TravisM. I’m sure we will be arguing about quarterbacks when he comes back on the show once the season wraps up.