Oklahoma State College Football Playoff Rooting Guide: Cowboys need a lot of help to make the CFP, but anything’s possible in the Big 12

While making the College Football Playoff feels more unlikely after the Houston loss, not all is lost for Oklahoma State.

Tyler Forness — NFL & College Football News Writer
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Oklahoma State Cowboys quarterback Drew Mestemaker (17) warms up before a college football game between the Oklahoma State Cowboys (OSU) and the Colorado Buffaloes at Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater, Okla., Saturday, Oct. 24, 2026.
Oklahoma State Cowboys quarterback Drew Mestemaker (17) warms up before a college football game between the Oklahoma State Cowboys (OSU) and the Colorado Buffaloes at Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater, Okla., Saturday, Oct. 24, 2026. BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Oklahoma State Cowboys are one of the better stories in college football this season.

Head coach Eric Morris took the job after a long journey that started as the head coach at Incarnate Word, going with Cam Ward to Washington State as the offensive coordinator, and spent the last couple years as the North Texas head coach. After nearly leading the Mean Green to the College Football Playoff last year, he took star quarterback Drew Mestemaker and running back Caleb Hawkins with him to Stillwater, and things looked good.

Unfortunately, they didn’t start out as good, as they got whipped by Tulsa 24-10 in Week 1, but followed it up with a 39-31 massive upset over the Oregon Ducks when they were fully healthy.

Being that they have two losses already, can the Cowboys make the College Football Playoff? Yes, but they need a lot of help to get there, and the A to Z Sports’ CFP predictor helps paint the picture.

Oklahoma State needs help to make the College Football Playoff

Simply put, the Cowboys only have a 42% chance to make the CFP if they win out. Their schedule only has one team that has a chance to make it: Texas Tech Red Raiders. Here is their schedule the next five weeks:

  • at Iowa State (71% chance to win)
  • at Kansas State (54%)
  • vs. Texas Tech (42%)
  • at Arizona State (67%)
  • vs. Kansas (68%)

Their loss two weeks ago against the Houston Cougars was a tough one, because it makes their strength of victory that much weaker. They will need to win out to get a spot, or have a lot of chaos happen, along with a win in the Big 12 Title Game.

If they end up winning out and getting to the Big 12 Title Game, they will likely be playing Utah, and an undefeated Utes could be their best bet to getting to the CFP. They will be less motivated than a normal participant. However, a loss by the Utes to BYU, combined with a loss to Cincinnati (15% gain) or West Virginia (19% gain) would be massive, as it could knock the Utes out of making the Big 12 Title Game. That would likely mean a matchup with BYU.

They also could use some losses from SEC team who also have two losses to make their path a little easier.

  • Florida Gators
  • Texas Longhorns
  • LSU Tigers
  • Ole Miss Rebels

Even so, none of those other games matter if they can’t get wins themselves. If they do win, seeing these things happen will do them wonders.

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