My prediction: Notre Dame will jump from No. 11 to No. 5 in Tuesday night’s College Football Playoff rankings.

Notre Dame put itself in position to make one of the biggest moves in the next College Football Playoff rankings with its 31-24 victory over previously undefeated Miami on Saturday night. The Fighting Irish entered the weekend ranked No. 11 in the first CFP rankings of the season.

That placement raised plenty of eyebrows, particularly for a Notre Dame team that had just one loss. However, the committee made its expectations pretty clear: The Irish needed a signature win to strengthen their playoff resume.

They got exactly that against Miami.

Notre Dame knocked off the team the committee had placed at No. 1 in its initial rankings, handing the Hurricanes their first loss of the season. It was the kind of résumé-defining victory that should force the committee to reconsider where the Irish belong nationally.

The question isn’t whether Notre Dame will move up. It absolutely should, and will. The more interesting discussion is just how far the committee is willing to move the Irish after one of the biggest wins of the college football season.

I’m predicting a six-spot jump to No. 5.

There is a legitimate argument for Notre Dame to move even higher, but I think No. 5 is the most realistic landing spot when looking at the committee’s initial rankings, Saturday’s results, and the teams that were positioned ahead of the Irish entering the weekend.

Where Notre Dame stood in the first CFP rankings

Before looking at where Notre Dame could land Tuesday, it’s important to revisit the committee’s original top 12.

The first rankings, released November 3, were as follows:

Initial rank	Team	Record entering Week 10
1	Miami	8-0
2	Georgia	7-1
3	Utah	8-0
4	Indiana	8-1
5	Alabama	6-2
6	Kentucky	7-1
7	Texas	6-2
8	UCLA	8-0
9	BYU	7-1
10	Ole Miss	6-2
11	Notre Dame	7-1
12	Ohio State	6-2

Notre Dame was the last team inside the projected 12-team playoff field, sitting one spot ahead of Ohio State.

The committee’s biggest concern with the Irish was their lack of a signature victory. Their loss to BYU was also a factor, and the committee didn’t appear particularly impressed with the overall strength of Notre Dame’s schedule.

Again, that changed Saturday night.

The Irish now have a win over the team the committee considered the best in the country just one week ago. They also have a head-to-head victory that should make it difficult for Miami to remain ahead of them, especially after all the debates last season.

Why Notre Dame should make a significant jump

There are several reasons I believe Notre Dame will move into the top five.

1. The Irish now have the signature win the committee wanted.

This is the biggest factor, and it’s difficult to overstate its importance. Notre Dame didn’t just beat a ranked opponent. It beat the No. 1 team in the committee’s rankings, a Miami program that entered the weekend undefeated at 8-0.

The Irish also controlled much of the game. They built a 24-3 lead before Miami made a late push, ultimately holding on for a 31-24 victory. CJ Carr threw for 319 yards and three touchdowns, and Notre Dame’s offense did enough to put the Hurricanes in a difficult position for most of the night.

The committee had Notre Dame at No. 11 because it wanted to see the Irish beat a quality opponent. They answered that question emphatically.

2. Several teams ranked ahead of Notre Dame lost.

This is where things get particularly interesting for the Irish.

Notre Dame wasn’t the only team with an opportunity to improve its playoff standing Saturday. Several of the teams ranked ahead of it were involved in major matchups, and the results created a favorable situation.

• Miami (No. 1): Lost 31-24 to Notre Dame. The Hurricanes should fall behind the Irish after losing the head-to-head matchup.
• BYU (No. 9): Lost 28-20 to Utah, dropping to 7-2. The Cougars also struggled offensively in the second half and threw four interceptions.
• Ole Miss (No. 10): Was blown out 42-7 by Georgia. The Rebels fell to 7-3 and should take a substantial drop.
• Ohio State (No. 12): Lost 41-28 to Oregon, falling to 6-3. The Buckeyes have now lost three games and should fall considerably.
• Kentucky (No. 6): Suffered a 34-6 loss to Tennessee. The Wildcats dropped to 7-2 after being thoroughly dominated.

That’s five teams that were ranked ahead of Notre Dame in the initial rankings that either lost or suffered a particularly damaging defeat. Notre Dame should benefit from those results.

3. The committee has to account for the head-to-head result against Miami.

I don’t think there’s much debate about this one.

Miami entered the weekend as the No. 1 team in the country according to the selection committee. Notre Dame beat the Hurricanes on the field, and the Irish should be rewarded accordingly.

That doesn’t necessarily mean Miami has to fall below every team that moves ahead of Notre Dame, but it would be difficult to justify keeping the Hurricanes above the Irish.

Miami also lost an important opportunity to strengthen its résumé. The Hurricanes’ best win entering the game was against Wake Forest, which was ranked No. 16 in the initial CFP rankings.

Notre Dame now has a much more impressive victory to put on its resume.

The biggest question: Can Notre Dame jump Alabama and Indiana?

This is where I think the committee’s decision becomes particularly interesting.

Alabama entered the first rankings at No. 5 despite having two losses. That was one of the more surprising decisions from the committee, but the Crimson Tide have a résumé that the selection committee clearly respects.

They added another quality victory Saturday, beating LSU 31-13 on the road.

Alabama is now 7-2, and I think the committee will reward the Tide for that performance. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if Alabama moves into the top three.

Indiana is another team Notre Dame has to contend with.

The Hoosiers entered the first rankings at No. 4 with an 8-1 record. They didn’t play Saturday, but the results around them were interesting. Indiana’s victory over Ohio State earlier this season looks even better after the Buckeyes lost to Oregon.

I understand the argument for keeping Indiana ahead of Notre Dame. The Hoosiers have been consistent, and their overall résumé is strong.

However, Notre Dame now owns a victory over the team the committee considered No. 1 in the country. Indiana doesn’t have a comparable signature win.

I think there’s a legitimate argument for moving the Irish ahead of the Hoosiers, but I’m not sure the committee will be ready to make that jump after initially placing Notre Dame seven spots behind Indiana.

Other projections have Notre Dame making the same jump

I’m not the only one expecting Notre Dame to land in the top five.

NBC Sports’ Nicole Auerbach released her projection for Tuesday’s second CFP rankings on Sunday, and she also has the Fighting Irish moving from No. 11 to No. 5.

Her projected top five:

Rank	Team
1	Georgia
2	Utah
3	Alabama
4	Indiana
5	Notre Dame

Auerbach believes the committee will reward Notre Dame’s victory over Miami but also pointed out that the initial No. 11 placement could limit just how far the Irish climb in one week.

NCAA.com’s Stan Becton also projects Notre Dame at No. 5. His reasoning is similar: The Irish finally have the signature victory that was missing from their résumé when the first rankings were released.

Having two national college football analysts arrive at the same projection certainly makes me more confident in my prediction.

My final College Football Playoff ranking prediction

I think the committee will make a statement with its second set of rankings. Bias aside, Notre Dame deserves to be in the top five, and I believe the committee will recognize the significance of beating the nation’s No. 1 team.

Here’s how I see the top 10 shaking out Tuesday night:

Rank	Team
1	Georgia
2	Utah
3	Alabama
4	Indiana
5	Notre Dame
6	Texas
7	UCLA
8	Miami
9	Tennessee
10	Kentucky

Final prediction: No. 5 Notre Dame

I wouldn’t rule out Notre Dame landing at No. 6, particularly if the committee decides to keep Indiana ahead of the Irish and gives Texas a significant boost after its victory over Missouri. But I think the combination of Miami’s loss, the struggles of several teams ahead of Notre Dame and the quality of the Irish victory makes No. 5 a realistic outcome.

More importantly, Notre Dame has put itself back in control of its playoff destiny.

The Irish entered the weekend needing a signature victory to change the committee’s perception. They got it against Miami, and now they have an opportunity to continue building their résumé over the final stretch of the regular season.

The committee’s first rankings put Notre Dame on the outside looking in at the top 10. I expect Tuesday night’s rankings to look considerably different.

Notre Dame will be No. 5 when the next College Football Playoff rankings are released Tuesday night.

The second CFP rankings are scheduled to be revealed Tuesday, November 10, on ESPN.