BYU College Football Playoff Rooting Guide: Cougars have a simple path to the CFP, but there is no margin for error

BYU Cougars have one of the best wins this college football season, but a loss to UCF changed their path.

Tyler Forness — NFL & College Football News Writer
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Oct 17, 2026; Provo, Utah, USA; Bringham Young Cougars head coach Kalani Sitake looks on before the game against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at LaVell Edwards Stadium.
Oct 17, 2026; Provo, Utah, USA; Bringham Young Cougars head coach Kalani Sitake looks on before the game against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at LaVell Edwards Stadium. Rob Gray-Imagn Images

After their 28-24 upset win over the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, the BYU Cougars vaulted up to No. 2 in the AP poll and the program felt alive. It was a massive win that had them ranked their highest since the famous 1984 season.

Unfortunately for the Cougars, they lost to the UCF Golden Knights in double overtime, having to travel across the country for a conference road trip. That made their chances to make the College Football Playoff that much harder.

Where things get really interesting is with how the rest of the Big 12 season unfolds. The Cougars are still in the drivers seat at 3-1, as the only undefeated team in the conference is the Utah Utes. It just so happens that the two teams are set to play in the Big Noon Kickoff game on Fox next week.

That will be a massive win if BYU can get it done. If they can or can’t, they will still have a chance to make the College Football Playoff. The A to Z Sports’ CFP predictor helps us

BYU Cougars could use some help to secure College Football Playoff spot

When we take a look at the predictor, an 11-1 record has the Cougars in over 99% of the time, and it’s still 85% if they finish 10-2. It drops to 83% if they finish at 10-2 and then lose the Big 12 Championship Game.

Their biggest game on the schedule will be against big rival Utah in the Holy War. If they lose that game, they won’t have any margin for error. However, they don’t have a difficult schedule.

  • vs. Arizona State
  • at Utah
  • vs. Baylor
  • at Kansas
  • vs. Cincinnati

They have already given the Arizona Wildcats their only loss 28-17 in Week 2, but not having the Texas Tech Red Raiders on the schedule does hurt them, as does not having the Houston Cougars.

Having Texas Tech lose to the TCU Horned Frogs in Week 13 would increase their playoff odds by 6%. They would also benefit from seeing multiple two-loss SEC teams lose:

  • Florida Gators
  • Texas Longhorns
  • LSU Tigers
  • Ole Miss Rebels

The Cougars are in a great place right now, as they control their own destiny. However, they could still use some help, because you know the committee would love to put in a 9-3 SEC team over a Big 12 team.

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