Every game the Ohio State Buckeyes play comes with the expectation of a win. Saturday’s road matchup against USC carries more weight than most for several reasons. It’s Ohio State’s first game without quarterback Julian Sayin, who is likely out for the season with an elbow injury.

The result will also shape the College Football Playoff picture and the Big Ten race heading into November.

USC is 5-2 and coming off a blowout loss to Wisconsin, and the Trojans are reeling. They entered the year with College Football Playoff hopes, and it looks like they’re going to fall short once again. If things keep going south, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see USC move on from head coach Lincoln Riley very soon.

What the playoff predictor says about Ohio State vs. USC

Timing adds to the importance of this one. The first College Football Playoff rankings come out next week to open November, and a loss in Los Angeles would change how Ohio State looks in that first bracket.

A to Z Sports built a new College Football Playoff predictor that allows you to simulate games. The predictor is built on 6,000 simulated seasons, and the numbers show exactly what’s riding on Saturday for the Buckeyes.

If Ohio State beats USC, its chances of making the College Football Playoff rise to 95 percent. A loss drops those odds to 64 percent. The Buckeyes would then sit at 6-2 and in a spot where they likely cannot afford to lose another game.

The Big Ten race tells a similar story with how this game has an impact. With a road win, Ohio State’s chances to win the conference climb to 61 percent. A loss leaves the Buckeyes with just a 22 percent chance to win the Big Ten.

The gap is even wider when it comes to a first-round bye. Ohio State’s chance at a bye in the College Football Playoff goes up to 78 percent with a win over USC. That number drops to 26 percent with a loss. You can run the scenarios yourself with the A to Z Sports College Football Playoff predictor.

Those numbers show why it’s important for Ohio State to pick up another quality road win here. One result has the Buckeyes in the driver’s seat, and the other puts them on thin ice for the rest of the year.

Ohio State is turning to a freshman quarterback it looks like 

Ohio State heads into this game needing to lean on the run more and play strong defense. That’s the formula for a team breaking in a new quarterback on the road in prime time, and it’s a formula the Buckeyes have the roster to execute.

Freshman Luke Fahey is likely to be the man under center against the Trojans. Even with a first-time starter, Ohio State is still going to want to get the ball to Heisman leader and superstar wide receiver Jeremiah Smith. Smith is already closing in on 1,000 receiving yards this year.

Having Smith out there is going to be key for Fahey on Saturday. A receiver who can win one-on-one matchups and turn short throws into big gains takes plenty of pressure off a young quarterback. Expect the Buckeyes to look his way early to help Fahey settle in.

Still, the expectations don’t change with a new quarterback in there. Ryan Day’s team will be expected to get the job done in a game that matters in a variety of ways, from the first playoff rankings to Big Ten seeding.

USC has plenty of motivation of its own after the Wisconsin loss, and they have a whole lot riding on this game. It might be No. 2 Ohio State vs. and unranked team on Saturday, but the final score very well could end up closer than expected.