This is as big as it gets for Dallas Cowboys head coach Brian Schottenheimer. The next three to four weeks might be the most important stretch he has ever faced in his coaching career, and I believe it will define his fate as head coach of the Cowboys.

Dallas sits at 2-2, and we’re still trying to figure out who this team is. What comes next could decide whether the Cowboys are a postseason team or a team watching from the couch in January. If it’s the latter, I think Schottenheimer might be done in Dallas.

Let’s break it down.

4 winnable games before the trade deadline

When I look at the next four weeks of the schedule, I see four very winnable matchups. Which is particularly important for a head coach who has strung together exactly one winning streak during his time leading the team. It came last season, when the Cowboys beat the Philadelphia Eagles, the Las Vegas Raiders, and the Kansas City Chiefs.

Outside of that run, we haven’t seen the Schottenheimer Cowboys stack wins. Here’s the opportunity in front of them:

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Thursday): It’s a short week, but the Bucs don’t have Baker Mayfield. Undrafted rookie quarterback Jalen Daniels looked decent in Week 4, but he should be no match for a Dak Prescott-led offense.
• Green Bay Packers (at Lambeau): Always a scary trip, I won’t tell you otherwise. And yet, Green Bay leads the NFL in drops and fumbles, and it owns the league’s worst rushing offense by far. Pick a metric, and the Packers are near the bottom.
• Philadelphia Eagles (Week 7, Monday Night Football): Another scary matchup on paper. But Philly has one of the worst offenses in football right now, and it’s dealing with plenty of injuries and problems of its own. 
• Arizona Cardinals: The final game before the trade deadline.

There’s a very good chance the Cowboys will rip off four straight wins. And if they do, think about how that changes the perspective on Schottenheimer.

He would go from a 9-11-1 record as Dallas’ head coach to a winning one. He would own a five-game winning streak. I’m not saying it’s going to happen, because this is the NFL. But a 6-2 Cowboys team at the trade deadline is a very different conversation. And a realistic scenario, to be honest.

Suddenly, Dallas could find itself in the driver’s seat of the NFC East. The Eagles are struggling, and the New York Giants are cycling through backup quarterbacks (they have Jameis Winston, with J.J. McCarthy waiting for his turn). New York shouldn’t stay atop the division for long. The Cowboys, by the way, are now favored to win it.

What could stop the Cowboys from going 6-2?

I keep coming back to this question, and the only answer I have is Schottenheimer himself. Game management mistakes. Not having his team ready to go. And obviously, an extremely flawed defense. 

That’s because the offense is clicking. It clicked against the Houston Texans, one of the best defenses in the NFL. Dallas has the fourth-best red zone offense in football, and that’s on Schottenheimer and his play-calling.

We’re coming off a week in which we criticized Schottenheimer, and deservedly so. This stretch is his chance to wipe all of that away.

Even the defense showed signs of life in Houston. Yes, it allowed 30 points to CJ Stroud and the Texans. But there were improvements and adjustments, including more man coverage from Christian Parker in Joey Porter Jr.’s first game in Dallas and Quinnen Williams’ best game of the season.

No margin for error after the deadline

If Schottenheimer fumbles this four-game stretch, that’s going to be it. That’s the season.

After the trade deadline, the schedule turns brutal. The Cowboys visit the Indianapolis Colts on Nov. 8, which won’t be easy. Then they host the San Francisco 49ers, who look like the best team in the NFC right now.

The Tennessee Titans at home should be a check mark. At least, it should be.

Then come the Eagles at home, the Seattle Seahawks on the road, the Los Angeles Rams on the road, and the Jacksonville Jaguars. Seattle, the Rams, and Jacksonville might all be among the top five teams in the NFL.

That is to say, Dallas has to earn its cushion now.

The Cowboys are in a hurry

So when I say this is the most important month of Schottenheimer’s coaching career, I mean it. I think it determines whether the Cowboys make the playoffs, and in turn, whether he sticks around for more than two seasons.

This team is on a clock. Prescott isn’t going to play at this level forever. CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens won’t be together in Dallas forever either. And the front office keeps pouring resources into a defense that’s still figuring itself out.

The Cowboys didn’t give up a second-round pick in the 2028 NFL Draft because they think they’re a year or two away. They believe they can win now, and it’s on Schottenheimer to make it count.

It’s time, Schotty. There’s no room for error.