The Los Angeles Rams have the best preseason Super Bowl odds in the NFL entering the 2026 season, and on paper, this roster looks like a juggernaut.

Aaron Donald came out of retirement. The Rams made a trade for Myles Garrett. Matthew Stafford is back under center. Sean McVay is coaching what could be his final season before a television career (sarcasm but maybe not really). Los Angeles went all in, and the expectations have never been higher.

There’s just one problem. History says the preseason favorite never wins it all.

As Ben Fox pointed out on X, every team over the past 30 years that entered Week 1 with +500 or better odds to win the Super Bowl outright has failed to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. That has happened 20 times. Those short favorites have gone 0-for-20 winning the ring.

The list reads like a graveyard of dominant rosters. It includes the 2024, 2021, and 2020 Chiefs, the 2019 and 2017 Patriots, the 2015 and 2014 Seahawks, the 2011, 2009, 2008, and 2007 Patriots, a three-way tie in 2005 between Indianapolis, New England, and Philadelphia, the 2004 Eagles, the 2001 and 2002 St. Louis Rams, the 2000 St. Louis Rams, the 1999 Vikings, the 1998 and 1997 Packers, and the 1996 49ers.

Many of those teams reached the Super Bowl. None of them won it. That statistic alone should give every Rams fan pause.

Football is not played on paper

It makes a lot of sense when you think about how football actually works. The sport is not played on paper. Injuries happen, and the odds are somebody is going to get hurt in a way that changes the entire trajectory of the favorite’s season. That’s not a wish upon anyone. It’s a reality of the NFL.

Look at the Rams’ roster construction.

Stafford is 38 years old. Donald is a 35-year-old pass rusher. They have a 33-year-old wide receiver in Davante Adams, a 30-year-old pass rusher they just paid a massive contract to, and a 25-year-old receiver who spent the entire summer in rehab. The talent is undeniable if everyone stays healthy. The nightmare scenario, however, is not hard to envision.

The age conversation matters because anytime you are relying on an older roster at the most important positions, there is volatility that can come from that.

Consider this: we are one year removed from the conversation about Stafford’s back looking like it was deteriorating before he got an epidural and was suddenly fine again. He is a year older now, and back issues tend to return violently. Nobody is talking about it this offseason, but the concern has not disappeared.

Stafford’s health is the fulcrum

If Stafford is completely healthy this season, this team is a genuine Super Bowl contender. History has told us that when the Stafford and McVay combination is healthy, they are going to be a really good football team with Super Bowl potential. But we saw what happened a few years ago when Stafford was not healthy. Things deteriorated quickly for this Rams team.

When you operate under the “F them picks” mantra, you end up with a top-heavy roster rather than one built with full depth. Anytime a couple of injuries hit that kind of roster, things can go sideways in a hurry. There is natural anxiety heading into this season because the expectations are at an elite level, and the margin for error is razor thin.

The backup quarterback situation amplifies the concern. If something happens to Stafford and the Rams are left with Stetson Bennett and Ty Simpson trying to carry this talented roster to meet its championship expectations, that is an enormous amount of weight on shoulders that may not be built for it.

The NFC West will not hand them anything

Los Angeles does not get to sleepwalk into a home playoff game. The Seahawks are right there. San Francisco is going to scratch and claw for everything it can get. Carson Beck and the division’s young quarterbacks present their own challenges. The Rams have to go earn that thing with Stafford playing every meaningful game.

The way I see it, this season ends one of two ways: the Rams win the Super Bowl, or it is a massive disappointment. There is not much middle ground.

Even if they reach the conference championship and lose to a team that invested far fewer resources, it will be regarded as a colossal failure. When you push your chips in this aggressively and come up short, it is a heartbreaker on a level spiritually similar to the undefeated 2007 Patriots falling in the Super Bowl.

Unlike those Patriots teams that could retool and reload, the Rams are not in that position. This feels like the last ride before a significant reset has to happen. Stafford playing another season beyond this one would just mean rolling the dice again on his back holding up at 39 when it could not be guaranteed at 38.

The Rams are the best team on paper in the NFL. History says that is precisely the wrong place to be.