The Minnesota Vikings quarterback battle between J.J. McCarthy and Kyler Murray is five practices deep, and a trend is starting to emerge. McCarthy, the 10th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, has not done enough to maintain the starting job. As things sit right now, Murray is still the overwhelming favorite. However, he can shift the momentum with two simple, yet difficult elements.

McCarthy’s inconsistency remains the central problem

McCarthy played 10 games last season, and the major theme was inconsistency. He’s now missed 25 of his first 35 possible games due to injuries: the meniscus tear, the high ankle sprain, the concussion, and his throwing hand. It’s been never-ending, but the 10 games he did play showed a pattern. There were plays where he would wow with impressive throws and layered concepts, and then others where he laid a goose egg. Poor reads, poor decisions, and slow processing. Those inconsistencies defined his first year as a starter.

On the opposite side, Murray is processing well and efficiently, and he’s layering the football with consistency. The Vikings offense did not have those things last season, and it was a big reason Minnesota missed the playoffs and finished 9-8. If Murray continues to do those things and shows growth in other areas, paired with his arm talent, which is simply better than McCarthy’s, this team has something that can help it take a step forward and hopefully win a playoff game. The fan base has been waiting since the 2019 wild card upset of the New Orleans Saints.

The processing gap is real

McCarthy is not layering the ball consistently. There have been flashes, but there hasn’t been enough consistency to believe it’s fully improved. Some of that is opportunity. He doesn’t feel like he can make those throws. Without access to All-22 film of practice, it’s hard to gauge how fair or foul that assessment is. He might not have had opportunities because nobody was open, or he might not have been comfortable making the throw. That’s a piece of ambiguity we have to deal with because the data isn’t in front of us.

The bigger concern is processing speed. McCarthy is a quarter-second to a half-second, sometimes even a full second, late on his decisions. The ball needs to come out quickly so receivers can catch it and take the next step to advance the offense down the field. He’s consistently that tick behind.

The pass breakup by cornerback Zemaiah Vaughn during Saturday’s practice illustrated the issue perfectly. It was a comeback route from wide receiver Tai Felton. Half the blame goes on Felton because he should have come back to the football, and it probably gets caught instead of broken up. But McCarthy shouldn’t have put the receiver in that position to begin with if he’s on time with his read and decision. It’s a 50-50 split, but the play doesn’t happen if the quarterback processes faster.

Being a tick late in the NFL is different than being a tick late in college. The athletes are smarter, faster, and longer. If you’re a quarter-second late, that can be all a defender needs to get an extra three feet toward the ball and turn a nice completion into a pass breakup. The margins of error are that narrow.

McCarthy is showing some growth

This isn’t to say McCarthy is showing nothing positive. He’s more comfortable in the pocket. When he’s processing late, he isn’t panicking and he’s not being reckless with his delivery or trying to force the ball in a rushed fashion. He’s more composed, and he’s throwing relatively good footballs even when late. His mechanics aren’t falling apart like they were last year.

But the inconsistency with ball placement and the processing lag stack up. As much as anyone would love for McCarthy to take command of this team as the young franchise quarterback, it’s not possible to predict that outcome when the process-level consistency isn’t there.

What McCarthy has to do

You can control how you handle yourself day to day. You can control what you’re doing in the locker room, your workout regimen, your study habits. You can’t always control everything that happens on the field. You have to be good at reading and reacting. Right now, McCarthy is not doing enough with his process to read and react quickly enough, make quality decisions, and then execute on those decisions.

Head coach Kevin O’Connell has preached needing consistency from the quarterback position. That’s the key to McCarthy winning the job. If he can’t find that consistency in layering and processing, barring injury, I don’t think he has a chance to win the starting job. That’s not what anyone wanted to hear, but we live in reality.

If he does turn it around and those elements become consistent, things get fascinating in Minnesota. What happens with Murray? Does he stick around? Can McCarthy stay healthy? A lot of variables remain up in the air, but the path forward is clear. Find consistency in those two areas, and this competition gets really interesting.