Kyler Murray is primed for a breakout game vs. Dolphins, and the Vikings need him to elevate the offense
Kevin O’Connell made the calculated decision to move on from J.J. McCarthy, and he needs Kyler Murray to prove him right.
The Minnesota Vikings are looking to go 4-0, and their next challenge is the Miami Dolphins. It doesn’t necessarily feel like a challenge on paper, but history suggests the Vikings shouldn’t overlook anyone. Under head coach Kevin O’Connell, Minnesota is 5-0 when favored by seven or more points and 4-1 as seven-plus-point underdogs, with the only loss coming last season against the Seattle Seahawks.
The Dolphins aren’t devoid of talent. They’re a team that doesn’t have anyone established other than DeVon Achane who is out with a torn ACL, and that’s a key distinction. Miami is carrying nearly $180 million in dead salary cap, with roughly 60% of the cap devoted to players no longer on the roster. They are taking all their lumps at once and giving young players opportunities to log significant snaps. It’s not necessarily tanking, but they are prepping for the future. Giving a rookie an extra 400 or 500 snaps can accelerate development in a massive way.
That will be a big factor in deciding the game on Sunday afternoon, as well as the offense.
The Vikings offense needs to show what it can be
Minnesota’s offense has not been great this season. The Vikings rank 26th in EPA per play, 21st in rush EPA, and 26th in EPA per dropback. They sit 31st in success rate and 30th in explosive play percentage. Simply put: it’s not great.
A lot of that traces to two factors: Carson Wentz played the majority of two games, and the Week 2 game against the Chicago Bears forced an extremely conservative approach due to the weather.
The Dolphins’ defensive profile screams passing opportunity for the Vikings. Miami is 19th in EPA per rush allowed but 32nd in EPA per dropback and 30th overall in EPA per play. This matchup is the perfect opportunity for a Kyler Murray breakout game.
Murray was somewhat exonerated last week against the Buccaneers. He wasn’t great, but he was really good within a game plan that limited vertical opportunities. O’Connell designed the Tampa Bay game to isolate Justin Jefferson in one-on-one situations against corners. The Jordan Addison touchdown came off exactly that design, with Jauan Jennings running a deep curl right at the middle-of-the-field safety to free Addison against single coverage. The first play of the game, a dig route to Jefferson for 20-plus yards, set the tone early.
As the second half wore on, those isolation opportunities dried up, and Murray didn’t have places to throw the football. Everything was amplified by the loss of Jefferson due to his ankle injury. Against this Dolphins defense, with a full week of practice to iron out chemistry issues like the corner route to Addison, where Murray threw it deep while Addison ran it flat, or the seam route to T.J. Hockenson, where Hockenson stopped at the sticks instead of stemming it out, the offense should look sharper.
O’Connell has talked about how the offense is close, including how the game plan being installed knowing Jefferson is out will help the Vikings’ offense. The talent and the scheme are there. Murray has the arm talent, the brain, and the athleticism. Now it’s about putting it together within this system.
“I think it’s better for the rest of the group knowing the plan, knowing you know where they’re going to align, knowing how we’re going to call personnel groupings to get certain guys in the spots we want,” said O’Connell. “We’ve been able to practice it. Some guys, including some of our young guys who have been here, like a Tai Felton or a Myles Price. It was their kind of first time going through it a little bit, as well as Jauan [Jennings]. You know, Jauan being out there and being asked to do a little bit more than just maybe the position he’s gotten the reps at throughout the week of a game plan. So across the board, I think everybody will be much more comfortable, and I’m excited to see those guys play after kind of the week of prep we just got out of those guys.”
One intriguing element is how the Dolphins will cover on the back end. Per Fantasy Points Data, the Dolphins run a lot of Cover-6, and do so at a 21% clip. That’s a strong signal that they don’t trust their secondary. Murray and O’Connell will likely try and attack it with deep crossing routes to exploit the holes in coverage.
Brian Flores’ defense is built to dominate this matchup
The defensive side doesn’t need much hand-wringing. Minnesota ranks first in EPA per play allowed, third in EPA per dropback allowed, second in EPA per rush allowed, and first in success rate allowed at 36.3%. The only avenue opponents have found is attacking vertically up the seams, as Tucker Kraft, Cade Otton, and Matthew Golden have done.
Caleb Banks could be in for a breakout performance. He played only 11 or 12 snaps against Tampa Bay per Pro Football Focus and posted the highest PFF grade of his career. He’s learning how to use his strength, playing with better pad level and leverage. Banks is built like a unicorn, and his ability to occupy blockers, run crashing stunts, and blow over running backs in pass protection could be a major factor against Malik Willis.
Willis is a dynamite runner who can escape the pocket and throw vertically, so the contain element matters. Brian Flores blitzes at an absurd rate, somewhere between 72% and 85% depending on how you chart it. The key against the Dolphins will be continuing to exploit running backs in pass protection and letting the cornerbacks and back-end defenders handle a receiving corps that simply isn’t very strong. Chris Bell’s profile is almost identical to A.J. Brown’s, which is notable, but the overall group lacks depth.
The Vikings should attack vertically through the air, and Murray should have himself a day. Minnesota wins this one, 31-13.
