Vikings QB Sam Darnold is a bona fide MVP candidate and should be taken seriously
The Minnesota Vikings have a candidate for Most Valuable Player in Sam Darnold. Wait, really? Darnold is an MVP candidate? Yes, yes he is. It feels weird to call Darnold a true MVP candidate because the first six years of his career didn't exactly go well for him. The New York Jets selected Darnold with […]
The Minnesota Vikings have a candidate for Most Valuable Player in Sam Darnold.
Wait, really? Darnold is an MVP candidate?
Yes, yes he is.
It feels weird to call Darnold a true MVP candidate because the first six years of his career didn't exactly go well for him. The New York Jets selected Darnold with the third overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft and then traded him to the Carolina Panthers. Those five seasons led to most of the league, media and fanbase believing that he was a bust.
He took a chance to rehab his career in San Francisco behind Brock Purdy and it's made a huge impact on him and it's being felt now with the Vikings
Making the case that Sam Darnold should be NFL MVP
Right now, Darnold sits at sixth in the National Football League in MVP odds per DraftKings Sportsbook.
- QB Josh Allen: -400
- RB Saquon Barkley: +450
- QB Lamar Jackson: +1000
- QB Jared Goff: +1000
- QB Patrick Mahomes: +4000
- QB Sam Darnold: +5000
The Goff candidacy is rooted in the overall success of the Lions, something that I wrote about two weeks ago after the Vikings beat the Chicago Bears. Darnold's stats are overall just as good, if not better than Goff's across the board.
Since then, Darnold has come alive and played significantly better, including a five-touchdown performance against the Atlanta Falcons that earned Darnold NFC Offensive Player of the Week honors. He also won NFC Offensive Player of the Month in September.
How do his numbers stack up? Let's start out with the basic stats.
- Completion percentage: 68.4% (7th)
- Passing yards: 3,299 (6th)
- Touchdown passes: 28 (T-3rd)
- Interceptions: 10 (T-6th most)
- Yards/attempt: 8.5 (4th)
- Quarterback rating: 108.1 (3rd)
- Game winning drives: 4 (T-2nd)
These are the stats that most people associate with quarterback play. He ranks highly in pretty much every metric. The one that might hinder his candidacy is with interceptions. Mahomes does have 11 interceptions on the season, but Jackson (3) and Allen (5) have significantly better numbers in turnover avoidance.
The conversation shifts to his underlying metrics in neutral situations.
- EPA/play: 0.241 (5th)
- Success rate: 52.9% (4th)
- CPOE: 8.4% (1st)
- Air yards/attempt: 9.1 (5th)
The reason why we take a look at underlying metrics is to try and find out how they perform when the game is still in doubt. Darnold is excellent in those situations and has consistently made plays to generate explosive plays.
Speaking of explosive plays, that is where Darnold's candidacy has the best case. The basis of the Vikings' offense is on generating explosive plays and Darnold has done that better than anyone.
Pro Football Focus charts every throw that Darnold and every quarterback has made and it's clear that Darnold has been the best deep ball thrower in the National Football League this season.
Darnold has the eighth-most throws that travel 20+ yards this season (51), the second most Big Time Throws (19), the seventh-highest Big Time Throw rate (29.7%) and both completion percentage (52.9%) and adjusted completion percentage (54.9%). He also leads the league in the following categories:
- Completions: 27
- Yards: 969
- Yards per attempt: 19.0
- Touchdowns: 7
When you are trying to create explosives, it takes a long time to hold the ball in the pocket. Darnold has the third-highest time to throw in the NFL at 3.11 seconds, which has Darnold facing a ton of pressure. He's done a relatively good job against pressure, which he's faced on 169 dropbacks (37.5%). Darnold ranks highly in the following categories:
- Completion percentage: 56.6 (3rd)
- Yards: 982 (3rd)
- Yards/attempt: 8.7 (1st)
- Touchdowns: 12 (1st)
- Big Time Throws: 12 (T-2nd)
No matter how you look at Darnold's passing numbers, he's been great this season and it isn't just with the numbers. Darnold has elevated this offense to new heights with his ability and willingness to attack vertically down the field, create passing lanes with his legs and extend plays to generate explosives.
Darnold isn't just running the offense, he's elevating it with consistency
What will prevent Sam Darnold from winning MVP?
This is an easy one to answer and we can do it two parts.
- Narrative
- Dual-threat ability
Awards like Most Valuable Player are usually handed out to a player on one of the best teams that has cache built up from both the preseason and past years. That is something everyone in front of Darnold in the odds has, especially with former MVPs in Jackson and Mahomes. Allen is in a place where it feels weird to some that he hasn't won an MVP as of yet.
The other angle is the running game. Both Jackson and Allen are excellent runners and their offenses use them in the run game often. That is an element that Darnold doesn't have. Plus, Barkley is in contention to challenge Eric Dickerson's all-time rushing record if he plays well over the last four games.
Overall, Darnold is in the top-five of most important quarterback statistics along with being in the top 10 in essentially all of them, leads an 11-2 Vikings team and has been in the media lately for his incredible performances.
Now, is not having the cache going to be enough to make him the MVP? That depends how the final four weeks of the season play out. As things sits, he's as good of a candidate as anyone.