12-Team College Football Playoff Bracket Predictions for Week 10 ends with the rematch of the century

The first ever 12-Team College Football Playoff is one week away from its first official rankings release via the selection committee. Now that every team has played seven or eight games the playoff picture is beginning to come into view, but there's still plenty of time for contenders to both fall off and emerge from […]

Travis May — College Football Managing Editor
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Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka of Ohio State celebrate a touchdown. Mykel Williams and Chaz Chambliss of Georgia celebrate a huge defensive play.
© Kyle Robertson/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images & © Brett Davis-Imagn Images

The first ever 12-Team College Football Playoff is one week away from its first official rankings release via the selection committee. Now that every team has played seven or eight games the playoff picture is beginning to come into view, but there's still plenty of time for contenders to both fall off and emerge from the shadows. So, which teams will actually make it into this first ever 12-team playoff?

In case you missed our prior installments of this Playoff Bracket Predictions series at A to Z Sports, here's a short synopsis on how this column is put together:

Using a mix of current team records, remaining schedules, large sample data projections, and a few other variables we decided at A to Z Sports to build out weekly playoff predictions to help guide us towards this epic inaugural college football tournament.

And in case you missed the detailed breakdowns this off-season, the "5+7" model to this 12-team playoff means that the five highest ranked conference champions and seven more "at-large" bids as voted on by the college playoff committee earn a spot in the tournament field (as you can see in Chris Vannini's post below, sharing details directly from College Football Playoff representation this spring).

Other key things to know about this new game-changing playoff format:

  • The top four seeds receive a first round bye.
  • Seeds 5-8 host first round playoff games at home against seeds 9-12.
  • The bracket will remain in effect throughout the entirety of the playoff, so there's no re-seeding based on early round outcomes.
  • Quarterfinal and Semifinal game locations will be decided in consideration of historic bowl relationships and seeding.
  • If you'd like the full breakdown on the college football playoff bracket you can find that here straight from the source.

With this new format in mind, it's time to share the A to Z Sports Week 10 predictions for the 2024 12-Team College Football Playoff, breaking down every game in each round based on a heavily data-driven projection of the season.

DeAndre Moore Jr.

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First Round

Four Conference Champions on Bye

  1. Oregon (13-0 Big Ten Champion)
  2. Georgia (12-1 SEC Champion)
  3. Miami (13-0 ACC Champion)
  4. BYU (12-1 Big 12 Champion)

First Four Matchups

  • #12 Tennessee at #5 Ohio State
  • #11 Boise State (12-1 MWC Champion) at #6 Penn State
  • #10 Texas A&M at #7 Texas
  • #9 Clemson at #8 Notre Dame

First Four Out

  • Indiana
  • Iowa State
  • Pittsburgh
  • Alabama

Group of 5 Conference Contenders

  • Army
  • Navy
  • Memphis
  • Tulane
  • UNLV
First Round 12-Team Playoff Bracket Predictions

#12 Tennessee at #5 Ohio State

Ohio State wins the battle of elite defenses.

Tennessee has looked imperfect in a few games this year, but their defense still remains elite. The Vols are allowing just 4.03 yards per play, less than 260 total yards per game, and boast elite pass rushers along the edge and interior of their defensive line. They likely hold Ohio State to a lower point total than many expect. However, their offense hasn't quite put it all together this year with Nico Iamaleava under center.

Ohio State's defense is allowing just 4.33 yards per play, 254 yards per game, and has NFL talent at every level of their defense. And unlike Tennessee, the Buckeyes offense ranks Top 10 in most key rate stats. Tennessee likely struggles to keep up with Ohio State who ends up holding a multi-score edge when the score goes final.

#11 Boise State at #6 Penn State

Ashton Jeanty almost pulls off the huge upset for Boise State.

This is the battle of the underrated offenses. Not many fans likely know that both Boise State and Penn State are averaging over seven yards per play, ranking firmly inside the top ten by that measure. Ashton Jeanty is averaging 8.3 yards per touch himself and will likely push Penn State to the brink of defeat, but ultimately fall short.

Penn State's pass rushers Abdul Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton should absolutely wreck Boise State's front all game long, disrupting running lanes and sacking the quarterback. A few key stops will be enough to give the Nittany Lions the edge despite Jeanty breaking Barry Sanders' single season college football records in this contest.

#10 Texas A&M at #7 Texas

The rematch for the Texas state championship goes to the Longhorns.

Texas A&M has been a great story under new head coach Mike Elko this season, but they've truly been faking it until they make it. Their game of quarterback roulette has been a sight to behold as they flip back and forth between Marcel Reed and Conner Weigman, but against the truly elite teams that simply won't work.

Texas has the number one defense in all of college football, giving up less than four yards per play and limiting opposing offenses to the fewest plays of 10+ and 20+ yards on the year. A&M will be smothered by the Longhorns defense while Quinn Ewers and his incredible set of skill position players put up 30 or more points. The regular season matchup might be close between these two, but Steve Sarkisian's depth of talent and adjustments will make the rematch uncompetitive.

#9 Clemson at #8 Notre Dame

Clemson's offense proves far too efficient for Notre Dame to match.

Notre Dame's dynamic duo of Riley Leonard and Jeremiyah Love has created quite the force on offense for the Fighting Irish. They both now have over 530 rushing yards on the season and a combined 20 rushing touchdowns. Their success mixed with the Irish' improving pass rush makes them a real playoff contender, but the lack of a passing game is worrisome.

Meanwhile, Clemson's rushing attack has proven to be nearly as good, but Cade Klubnik's newfound near elite passing ability has given the Tigers a huge boost all year long. Clemson has been able to score at will this season against everyone but Georgia in Week 1. It's likely Clemson takes an early lead and Notre Dame can't hold pace or catch up due to their passing game limitations.

Quarterfinals

Quarterfinal 12-Team Playoff Bracket Predictions

#1 Oregon vs #9 Clemson

Oregon's quick passing game and pass rush do just enough to win.

Dillon Gabriel is completing over 76% of his passes on the year thanks to Oregon's quick passing scheme and top notch playmakers around him. Tez Johnson, Evan Stewart, and tight end Terrance Ferguson should feast on underneath targets even if Clemson's strong front can get to the passer quickly. On the other side of the ball, Oregon boasts top ten edge and defensive tackles in Jordan Burch and Derrick Harmon. The depth of Oregon's talent mixed with key matchup advantages up front and in the secondary give the Ducks a close victory.

#2 Georgia vs #7 Texas

Georgia doubles down on their pass rush creativity and wins again.

The last time these two teams faced off Georgia's creativity and versatility in the pass rush dominated Texas up front. It's likely the Longhorns make several adjustments to prepare for this, but it might not matter. If Georgia pass rushers can get home to the quarterback anywhere near the level of success they did in October, this game is another rather lopsided win for the Bulldogs and Kirby Smart. Quinn Ewers hasn't performed well against pressure from the best teams.

#3 Miami vs #6 Penn State

Miami luckily faces off against one of the only teams they match up well against in round one.

Cam Ward has been the best quarterback in college football this year. He and his trusted wide receiver group should be able to sync up just fast enough to defeat the edge rushing duo that Penn State brings. The running game for Penn State might make a splash or two early given Nick Singleton's talent, but Miami's propensity to limit explosive plays ranks among the Top 40 in all of college football. Miami wins a close one thank to Cam Ward heroics.

#4 BYU vs #5 Ohio State

BYU's complete lack of any elite talent gets exposed horribly.

At this point it's highly likely BYU enters the Big 12 Championship Game with just one ore zero losses. Their defense has been the ultimate bend-don't-break machine, giving up over 100 plays of 10+ yards, but tightening up in the red zone forcing field goals at higher rate than 95 FBS teams. However, BYU simply does not have the talent to hold up against a real team like Ohio State.

Ohio State has nearly 20 NFL Draft prospects headed to the league next spring. BYU might have one or two at most. This game will be over the moment the two teams step off the bus, a la the 2022 National Championship game between Georgia and TCU. The teams don't belong on the same field. BYU might scheme something fun up early that keeps the game looking close for a quarter, but then it's night night before halftime.

Semifinals

Semifinal 12-Team Playoff Bracket Predictions

#1 Oregon vs #5 Ohio State

Ohio State avenges their prior failures against the Ducks.

The Oregon Ducks look like a nearly unstoppable force right now on both sides of the ball. They're a Top 12 team on both offense and defense in yards per game. Their havoc rates on defense mixed in with their -0.22 EPA allowed per drop back (top ten in FBS) in the pass game is a deadly combo for opposing teams trying to play keep up or catch up. QB Dillon Gabriel has scored at least three touchdowns by himself in seven of the last eight games. However, Ohio State is right there with them.

The Buckeyes are even better overall on defense, allowing the fourth fewest yards per play and sixth lowest adjusted EPA per play in all of FBS. The Buckeyes have also posted even higher offensive efficiency marks on the season, thanks much in part to their elite skill position groups at wide receiver and running back. Future first round wide receivers Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka should create a couple explosive plays. Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson should be able to maintain efficiency on the ground now that the Buckeyes are figuring out their offensive line. Buckeyes win a close one on the backs of their elite talents.

#2 Georgia vs #3 Miami (FL)

Miami gets owned by Georgia and their absurd pass rush.

The Miami hype train finally comes to a halt here. Cam Ward has been incredible this season, but he hasn't faced a team like Georgia. The Hurricanes likely stick in the game early as Ward makes a few big plays as he's done all year long, but Georgia's extreme talent advantage helps them pull away late as Miami won't have a real answer on defense. The Hurricanes' defense looks good on paper, but when adjusting for strength of schedule they're barely above average compared to power conference teams. Georgia coasts to a victory late.

Championship

Championship 12-Team Playoff Bracket Predictions

#2 Georgia vs #5 Ohio State

Both Ohio State and Georgia have been battling to replace the Alabama dynasty in recruiting, total wins, playoff appearances, and championships for over a decade now. This epic rematch of the 2022 semifinals will be the perfect chance for Ryan Day to avenge his loss that came down to a missed field goal as the clock struck midnight just two years ago.

The Buckeyes will finally and completely unleash every trick in the book from Chip Kelly's run scheme, which will open up the vertical passing options. The Ohio State edge with top tier draft prospects among every position group on defense will win against Georgia's skill position players. It will be a tight game as Jalon Walker and Mykel Williams try to put a stamp on their first round draft profiles as pass rushers for Georgia, but the Buckeyes win in the end.

First Four Out

In this scenario the "first four out" are Indiana, Iowa State, Pittsburgh, and Alabama.

  • Indiana – Kurtis Rourke has arguably been a top three quarterback in all of college football this year. Even if they can't pull off the impossible, defeating Ohio State, there's a chance they finish with just one loss. That would be a tough out for the playoff selection committee.
  • Iowa State – The Cyclones are still undefeated, but they have a bumpy road ahead (even this weekend against Texas Tech). Given most meaningful metrics have them rated barely inside the Top 30 it would only take a loss or two to ensure they don't make it.
  • Pittsburgh – Eli Holstein has been a hugely pleasant surprise and Pitt is still undefeated, but they need to beat SMU this weekend and likely win the ACC Championship somehow to make it in.
  • Alabama – It's annoying to most college football fans, but Alabama is still likely in this thing as long as they defeat LSU coming off of their bye this week. A two-loss Alabama does not control their own destiny at this point, but their resume headed up by a win against Georgia is still strong.

Group of 5 Contenders

There are five key Group of 5 Conference contenders outside of Boise State:

  • Army – Army is in the drivers seat behind Boise State now as the only undefeated Group of Five team in college football. If they win all their remaining games outside of Notre Dame, including the AAC Championship they'll be a tough out for the playoff. If they somehow defeat Notre Dame? They'll likely be an at-large bid regardless.
  • Navy – Navy was just destroyed by Notre Dame, but they still look like the second best bet to win the AAC alongside Army. That would be their path paired with a slip up from Boise State.
  • Memphis – They must win out and take down the AAC Championship to have a shot after the loss to Navy in September. They've almost blown it a couple times since then too, but the Tigers are still in this thing.
  • Tulane – Tulane's path right now flows through staying undefeated in conference play. They have two overall losses, but their key metrics on offense and defense suggest they're still good enough to potentially win the AAC. Their quarterback Darian Mensah has been one of the best quarterbacks in the nation.
  • UNLV – This is a long shot now that they have two losses, but UNLV could still win the Mountain West, beat Boise State in decisive fashion in the Mountain West Championship Game and just earn the edge for the final conference champion slot in the playoff.

We'll be back with more College Football Playoff coverage here at A to Z Sports all season long! Follow me (@FF_TravisM) and A to Z Sports (@AtoZSportsNFL) on X for all the latest football news!

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