Ok, we're going to go a little galaxy brain with this one. Minnesota Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson has been one of the better tight ends in the NFL for a while now going back to his days with the Detroit Lions. But when he got traded to the Vikings in 2022, his game seemed to head to another level. 

In 2023 he had a career season with 95 receptions for 960 yards and five touchdowns. The hope from the Vikings is that he continues to play like that going forward. Pro Football Network's Anthony DiBona doesn't think that will be the case though. 

DiBona put out a regression candidate for all 32 teams on Tuesday and he chose Hockenson as his regression candidate for the Vikings. Here's his reasoning:

"The Minnesota Vikings are seemingly embracing a rebuild following the departure of former starting quarterback Kirk Cousins. Once Cousins went down for the Vikings last season, T.J. Hockenson didn’t have a ton of success.

Hockenson eclipsed the 70-yard receiving mark just once after the veteran QB was injured while surpassing that total three times in Cousins’ eight starts. Now Hockenson will be forced to move on with Sam Darnold and J.J. McCarthy splitting time." 

Unfortunately he may be on to something there. Darnold isn't as talented as Cousins is and McCarthy is going to have trouble as most quarterbacks do in their early years. There's a lot more Bryce Youngs than there are C.J. Strouds. 

This whole thing got us wondering. Is Hockenson long for this world when it comes to playing for the Vikings? Yes, the Vikings just signed Hockenson to a major deal last August and made him the highest paid tight end in the game at the time. They probably felt good about that after the 2023 season. 

Now if there's going to be regression, Hockenson is going to eventually start looking like a guy that's holding up money during a rebuild. That's when a team might look to move on and free up the cash. 

The Lions just made that move with Hockenson. His play began to regress and instead of paying him big money, they moved on and saved the cash and let the Vikings pick up the bill. Detroit wound up with Sam LaPorta and it all worked out. Could the Vikings make the same type of move if there's a regression? 

It might not happen any time soon, but the Vikings could make a move as early as after the 2024 season if Hockenson has a bad year. Hockenson's salary in 2025 becomes guaranteed on the 15th of June 2024. If they move him in a trade ahead of then they would have to pay out $10 million in dead cap, but they save a lot of money down the road and Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has shown to be someone who likes to save money. 

The Vikings could then take their Sam LaPorta shot with Michigan's Colston Loveland in the 2025 NFL Draft and pair him back up with J.J. McCarthy. He would be on a rookie deal and would be a lot cheaper for the Vikings. Cheaper is good since Jordan Addison is probably going to get paid big in the near future.

If there's a regression, then you have to start asking if it's worth it to wait or if it's better to see what you can get out of him in a trade before then? It might be better to make a move early than it would be to make a move late.

Again, this is all depending on an imaginary regression that may not even happen at all. Darnold might turn out to be a pretty good starter. He's already putting in the work to make that happen. Even better for the Vikings, McCarthy might be the real deal. In both cases Hockenson might not miss a beat and this whole thought process we're having might just be that one time we went crazy in July. 

Right now, we do know that Hockenson is recovering from a torn ACL and that could cause him to miss some time during the 2024 season. So things are already off to a rough start. But he could come back and immediately be the impact guy he was in 2023.

If it does come true, the Vikings might be better off cutting bait early and continuing along with their rebuild. 

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