The Alabama Crimson Tide might be on a bye this weekend, but that doesn’t mean fans of the Crimson and White get the week off. Alabama is chasing a spot in the College Football Playoff, and a couple of results around the country in Week 9 could go a long way toward helping its case.

Using the all-new A to Z Sports College Football Playoff Predictor, we broke down Alabama’s playoff chances and the specific games Crimson Tide fans should be watching this weekend.

Where Alabama’s College Football Playoff chances stand

Let me bring you up to speed. Alabama is 6-2 overall and 4-2 in the SEC. According to the predictor, the Crimson Tide have a 68% chance to make the College Football Playoff, which ranks among the top 10 teams in the nation.

The conference picture is a little murkier. Alabama has a 14% chance to win the SEC and a 25% chance to reach the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta. That gap tells you the Crimson Tide’s most realistic path runs through an at-large bid rather than a conference title.

Alabama can’t help itself this weekend. It sits idle ahead of a massive matchup against the LSU Tigers next week. But other teams can help Alabama, and two games in particular stand out.

Root for Mississippi State to upset Texas

First up, Alabama fans should be pulling for Mississippi State to beat the Texas Longhorns. I’ll admit, it’s a tall order. Mississippi State will be without Kamario Taylor, who has officially been shut down for the remainder of the 2026 season.

Still, Texas has been in must-win mode since last week, much like Alabama. The Longhorns knocked off Ole Miss, and now they have to turn around and face Mississippi State. There is no rest for the weary in this conference.

This one has the makings of a trap game for Texas. Given the parity in the SEC, you can’t completely rule out the Bulldogs pulling it off. If they do, the predictor gives Alabama a 6% boost in its College Football Playoff chances. For a team sitting just inside the top 10 in playoff odds, that’s a meaningful bump.

The longer shot: Navy over Notre Dame

The second game is a much further fetch. Alabama fans should be rooting for the Navy Midshipmen to beat the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

On paper, Notre Dame should handle this one. However, the Fighting Irish have a huge game against Miami next weekend, the same day Alabama takes on LSU. That’s where the opportunity lies. If Notre Dame has one eye on Miami, Navy could catch the Irish looking ahead.

Is it likely? No. But crazier things have happened, especially in a college football season where everything seems wide open. A Notre Dame loss would shake up the at-large picture, and Alabama would be one of the teams in position to benefit.

What it all means for the Crimson Tide

Alabama controls a lot of its own destiny with LSU on deck, and that game will matter far more than anything that happens this weekend. Even so, a bye week is a good time to pick up some help from elsewhere.

A Mississippi State win over Texas is the result that would move the needle most, while a Navy upset of Notre Dame would be a welcome bonus. Those are the two games Crimson Tide fans should keep a close eye on while Alabama rests up for the Tigers.