The Lamar Jackson trade conversation is no longer a hypothetical exercise for the Baltimore Ravens. With Jackson headed to injured reserve and done for the year, the questions about his contract, his trade value, and his future in Baltimore are piling up.

On the latest episode of 13 Personnel, we dug into the contract details and what a potential Jackson trade could look like. The short answer is that nothing about this situation is simple.

Breaking down Lamar Jackson’s contract

The contract is where things get confusing. Jackson has no more guaranteed money after this season. That changes the math for the Ravens, and it changes the math for any team that might want him.

Heading into the 2027 season, Jackson is set to make a $51.25 million salary. His cap hit for Baltimore sits at $84.3 million.

If the Ravens trade him, they would still carry $74.8 million in dead cap. The acquiring team would take on a cap hit of roughly $52 million just to pay Jackson for 2027.

That is where the deal ends. Jackson’s contract is done after the 2027 season, so any team trading for him is almost certainly signing him to a new deal.

On top of that, Jackson does not have an agent. How does a team even navigate extension talks while working through trade conversations at the same time? There’s a lot of intrigue in that part of the process alone.

What the A to Z Sports trade simulator says

To get a feel for Jackson’s trade value, we ran him through the A to Z Sports NFL trade simulator. It was close to spot on with the trade value for Jeffrey Simmons last week, when the Tennessee Titans sent the defensive tackle to the Chicago Bears.

Simmons came in around 2,400 points on the simulator. He fetched two first-round picks, along with a fourth-round pick and a future fifth-round swap.

Jackson’s number blows that out of the water. His point value is 7,389. When Austin Stanley tried to build a trade using draft picks only, the simulator returned a message saying there was no fair trade available and suggested adding players at any position.

That puts Jackson third on the trade value list, behind only Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes.

To make the numbers work, you have to start cooking up video game-style packages. These are simulator results, not reported offers, but they show the scale of what it would take:

– Denver Broncos: CB Pat Surtain II, a 2027 first-round pick, and OG Quinn Meinerz; – Arizona Cardinals: TE Trey McBride, a first-round pick, and a second-round pick; – Houston Texans: EDGE Will Anderson Jr., CB Kamari Lassiter, and a 2028 first-round pick

Those packages are wild, and that is the point. Jackson’s value is so high that draft capital alone can’t get a team there.

The questions Baltimore has to answer

Jackson’s talent is comfortably in the tier of NFL players who should be untradeable. Nobody questions what he brings on the field. It’s everything else surrounding the situation that makes this complicated.

At what point does all of that outside stuff tip the scale toward moving on? It’s an impossible question, and I don’t envy the Ravens’ decision-makers even a little bit.

There’s also the identity piece. When you think of Jackson, you instantly think of Baltimore. He has been the face of that franchise for years. Picturing him in a Pittsburgh Steelers jersey, a New York Jets uniform, or anywhere else is going to take some serious adjustment.

The way I see it, this boils down to a three-step process. First, did Jackson just play his last snap for the Ravens? Second, what will it take for a team to land him? Third, who is actually going to make that move?

None of those questions have easy answers. We will see how Baltimore handles it, but the decision it makes with Jackson will shape the franchise for years to come.