The Georgia Bulldogs play the Missouri Tigers on Saturday, and the College Football Playoff picture is already in view. Before kickoff, Georgia has a 95% chance to make the College Football Playoff, according to A to Z Sports’ College Football Playoff Predictor.

The rest of the numbers look strong too. The Bulldogs have a 50% chance to win the SEC, an 89% chance to reach the SEC Championship Game, a 68% chance to earn a first-round bye, and a 20% chance to win the national title. That is a great spot to be in at this point of the season. However, Georgia still has a lot left to play for, and the path isn’t quite as simple as those numbers suggest.

How the Missouri game changes Georgia’s playoff odds

This is where it gets a little tricky.

If Georgia beats Missouri this weekend, its playoff odds jump to 99%. A loss drops that number to 76% because the Bulldogs would then have two losses on their resume. That is a 23-point swing riding on one Saturday.

If the Dawgs win out, they are pretty much a lock to make the field. But there is some wiggle room after Saturday, too. If Georgia beats Missouri but loses to South Carolina next week, the Bulldogs would still sit at a 98% chance to make the playoff.

If they then lose to Georgia Tech as well, that number plummets to 39%. So, Georgia can afford one more loss. It cannot afford two. At that point, the Bulldogs would be on the wrong side of a coin flip, leaving their fate in the committee’s hands.

The SEC title game doesn’t move the needle much

The big one here is how little the SEC Championship Game actually matters for Georgia’s playoff chances. If the Bulldogs reach Atlanta and win, they are guaranteed a spot. If they lose, they would still have a 90% chance to get in.

That means the conference title game wouldn’t affect Georgia’s playoff hopes all that much, as long as the Bulldogs take care of business before then. Of course, winning the SEC means more than just a playoff spot. It affects seeding and the first-round bye, which currently sits at 68%. But in terms of simply getting in, Georgia has built itself a cushion.

Georgia’s rooting interests around the SEC

The Bulldogs also have some rooting interests to watch.

Week 11: Georgia needs Arkansas to beat South Carolina. Week 12: Georgia needs Kentucky to beat Missouri. * Week 13: Georgia needs Oklahoma to beat Missouri.

Arkansas beating South Carolina is a long shot, but it can happen. An Oklahoma win over Missouri in Week 13 would add 1% to Georgia’s playoff odds. That isn’t much on its own, but every little bit helps when the margins start to tighten.

Either way, it all starts with Missouri. Beat the Tigers, and Georgia sits at 99% with room for one slip. Lose, and the Bulldogs will spend the rest of November hoping they don’t need that cushion they just burned.