The 2026 college football hot seat is smoking hot and the coaching carousel is officially moving. So far, Baylor let go of Dave Aranda, N.C. State parted ways with Dave Doeren, and Maryland moved on from Mike Locksley. As October closes and November begins next week, a lot of big programs are about to make decisions that will define their next era.

And the seat that is burning hottest right now belongs to USC coach Lincoln Riley, just as Ohio State walks into the Coliseum.

Lincoln Riley earned his way onto the hot seat, and it’s scorching

I believed Wisconsin was going to walk into this game, fresh off a loss to UCLA, and beat USC this weekend. I felt that way even with the Trojans coming off a bye. Part of that take came from a lack of trust in Riley to be a good enough ball coach to use a bye week and actually be prepared.

Instead, he fell face first on national television. Wisconsin threw for less than 100 yards, and USC still lost by multiple touchdowns. That is an embarrassing performance, and when a team looks that unprepared after an extra week, you look straight at the head coach.

Now the Buckeyes come to town with their backup quarterback, and I have no trust that USC will look any better. None. And you may say, Tegan, crazier things have happened this season. You’re right. This has been one of the strangest years of college football in a long time, and that is the only thing the Trojans can hang their hat on.

Maybe USC has quietly been preparing for Ohio State for two weeks, pulls off the quick turnaround, and Riley cools his seat off. I’ll live with being wrong on that one.

But as it currently stands, Riley has to be on one of the hottest seats in the country.

Shane Beamer saved his job, there’s a lot of football left to be played

The seat that has cooled off the most belongs to Shane Beamer. I think he has actually saved his job at South Carolina. Two marquee wins over Florida and Tennessee changed the entire conversation in Columbia. From everything I’m hearing, South Carolina doesn’t want to let go of him.

You’re seeing that hesitation across the sport. Multiple programs moved off their head coach and came to the same realization: the grass isn’t always greener on the other side. I’m mainly looking at Penn State.

So South Carolina, a program that loves Shane Beamer the person, is looking at this and seeing a coach who salvaged the season and still has the buy-in of his players. Maybe the Gamecocks give him a shot at a new era that isn’t built around LaNorris Sellers, Nyck Harbor, and Dylan Stewart.

I want to see what that looks like and what the expectations would be in what seems like a rebuilding year in 2027. As for the 2026 hot seat, Beamer is as good as gold and out the conversation now, barring a complete collapse to close the season.

Dan Lanning’s seat is only barely heating up

Then there’s Oregon coach Dan Lanning. His seat is warm, not threatening.

To be fair to the critics, the loss to Illinois was inexcusable, and Lanning is going to feel significant pressure because of it. But he has a scapegoat in his coordinators. I fully expect a major investment in high-level offensive and defensive coordinators heading into next season, and the defensive coordinator has already been let go. Lanning is moving the chess pieces to salvage some resemblance of what this season was supposed to be.

Are there red flags? Absolutely. If 2027 turns into a collapse, he is in serious danger in Eugene. But the coordinator changes buy him more grace than a lot of people expect.

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My verdict is simple. Lanning will get some breathing room, Beamer is safe after buying himself more time, and Riley is the one coach on this list whose next few weeks could decide everything. If USC doesn’t show up against a Buckeyes team starting its backup quarterback, I don’t see how the Trojans can justify keeping him.