Here’s what Florida has to do if it wants to beat Georgia in the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party. The Florida Gators had two weeks to prepare for the Georgia Bulldogs, and the answer is simple. Can they run the football?

That’s the make-or-break spot for this program in this matchup. It isn’t the quarterback debate or the bye week. It’s whether Florida can lean on its ground game against one of the most physical defenses in the SEC.

Jadan Baugh’s stat line will tell the whole story

If you traveled in time, came back, and handed me Jadan Baugh’s final stat line at the end of the game, I could tell you exactly how close this rivalry game turned out.

Say Baugh finishes with 15 carries for 56 yards. Then I know Georgia got off to a fast start, Florida had to abandon the run, and the Gators never got him going. That outcome would lead to a long afternoon for Florida.

Now flip it. If Baugh finishes with 21 carries for 156 yards and a couple of touchdowns, I would think Florida probably wins that football game. Baugh is one of the best running backs in the entire country, and when he gets rolling, this offense looks like a completely different unit. The answer to pulling off this upset starts there.

The quarterback question is a moot point

A lot is going to be said this week about whether Aaron Philo or Tramell Jones Jr. should play at quarterback for the Gators. Jones had a great win against Texas. Philo had the fast start to the season. Both sides of that argument have a case, but it shouldn’t matter here.

And you may say, Tegan, how can you brush off the most important position on the field? Because I think all of it is a moot point if Florida can’t run the ball. Simply put, neither quarterback is going to carry this offense against Georgia’s defense without a strong ground game behind him.

Honestly, if Florida offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner wanted to run a little bit of both of quarterbacks, I wouldn’t blame him. Faulkner has back-to-back years of good experience going up against Georgia defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann and Georgia head coach Kirby Smart. He knows what that defense wants to take away. If mixing in both quarterbacks keeps Schumann guessing, that’s a perfectly reasonable call.

Florida has to play with a loose mentality

The other piece of this is mentality. If I’m Florida, I’m playing loose. I’m not playing tight, and I’m not playing just to be competitive. I’m throwing everything I can at Georgia. If there’s a time to roll out a fake punt, this is the time to try a fake punt.

Usually I save that advice for a team facing a multiple-score deficit as an underdog. And to be fair, Florida is an 11.5-point underdog in this game, so the Gators fit the description. But there’s a bigger reason to go all out in this game.

Florida is in the first year of a new era. All it takes is one signature win against one of your biggest rivals to completely change the narrative around Florida football. Recruits notice that. Your fanbase notices that. The rest of the SEC notices that.

So why not throw the kitchen sink at Kirby Smart? Why not go for it all? A respectable loss doesn’t move the needle for this program. A win does, and a win like that can reshape the entire first chapter of a new coaching staff.

That’s where I land on this game. The biggest key for Florida is going to be the mentality, paired with whether it can run the ball with Baugh. If the Gators show up aggressive and Baugh is near 150 yards in the fourth quarter, Georgia is in a fight. If he’s stuck around 50, the Bulldogs are walking out of this one comfortably.