Who’s going to win in the battle of the first-year head coaches? The Florida Gators travel to Jordan-Hare Stadium to face off against the Auburn Tigers, and this is a game I’ve had circled since the offseason. Jordan-Hare Stadium at night is one of the most hostile environments in the entire country, and yet I’m still picking Florida to win this football game.

Frankly, I feel more confident now than I did in the offseason. Two weeks into the season, nothing has changed my mind. A lot of my Florida conviction has been rooted in the same fact since the summer: their rushing offense and their defensive talent are going to keep them in so many games, especially on the road, where they can take the air out of the building. That’s what will happen this weekend.

The Gators haven’t had to show their hand

The pairing of offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner and quarterback Aaron Philo has been strong through two weeks. I get it, it’s been against lesser competition. But I also think that’s an advantage for Florida because they have not had to show their playbook at all. Auburn, meanwhile, had to reveal a little bit during their game against Baylor. That information asymmetry matters more than people think heading into a matchup like this.

I think Florida is the more talented program with a better first-year head coach. I’ve been a huge fan of Jon Sumrall, and I believe he has this team playing with the kind of identity that translates to road wins in hostile environments. Philo is a quarterback who will not lose them this football game. He’s not going to make a ton of mistakes, and in a game like this, that’s half the battle.

Auburn quarterback Byrum Brown, on the other hand, has to go superhuman mode if the Tigers want to win. And if I’m trying to be like Doctor Strange and look through all the different avenues and game scripts of how this thing plays out, more times than not, Florida wins.

Too many paths to victory for Florida

Here’s what makes me so confident: there are so many different ways the Gators can win. They have the upside of blowing out Auburn even on the road. They can win a close, ugly game built on the ground attack and defensive stops.

For Auburn, I don’t see as many scenarios. The Tigers are going to be a good football team, and they do have the advantage of a night game in one of the best home environments in the SEC.

I expect this to be close. But in a close battle, I’m trusting the rushing attack and defense of Florida to get the job done. That’s my pick, and I’m standing on it.